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StormNorth Atlantic

The North Atlantic low is likely to pass just off A Coruña on Friday afternoon

A Coruña, Spain — Likely to pass 25–240 km SW of A Coruña Fri afternoon; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km.

Updated Tues., Nov. 10, 7:46 p.m. CET · 181 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment CanadaOne of the 5 forecast models is running late; its previous run is used.: high

A Coruña, Spain — Likely to pass 25–240 km SW of A Coruña Fri afternoon; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km.

Quick answers

As of the Mon 9 Nov 18Z – Tue 10 Nov 12Z model runs · updated Tues., Nov. 10, 7:46 p.m. CET

Where is the North Atlantic low going?
The centre is about 1,000 kilometres northeast of Ponta Delgada, moving southeast at about 15 km/h. The most likely path takes it about 80 kilometres southwest of A Coruña by Friday evening.
When will the North Atlantic low be closest to A Coruña?
Most likely Friday, Nov. 13, around 1 p.m. CET. Across the forecasts the comes between Thu 5 p.m. and Sat 4 a.m. CET. Most forecasts pass the centre 25–240 kilometres southwest of A Coruña.
What is the chance it passes within 160 kilometres of A Coruña?
73%: 7 in 10 forecasts bring the storm’s centre within 160 kilometres of A Coruña. Elsewhere: Porto 47%, Bilbao 21%, Barcelona 15%, Bordeaux 11%. Rain, wind and coastal flooding can reach well beyond 160 kilometres from the centre.
How much rain could A Coruña get while the North Atlantic low passes?
From Tue 7 p.m. (when the forecast’s rain totals start) to Sat 7 a.m. CET, the end of the window when its centre is closest to A Coruña, the middle of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts brings 27 mm of rain and melted snow to A Coruña; nearly all bring 13 mm or more and 6 in 10 bring 25 mm or more; 1 in 10 bring 51 mm or more. By Thu 1 p.m., when that window opens, the middle forecast already has 12 mm. That is all the rain in that time, not only the North Atlantic low’s, from one model (GEFS) on a coarse grid; local official forecasts can differ. A Coruña: rain and wind this week →
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: high. 181 of 185 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path. Little has changed since the previous run.
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Broadly, with some differences. Chance within 160 kilometres of A Coruña: AI ensembles (AIFS ENS, AIGEFS) 85%, physics ensembles (GEFS, ECMWF ENS, GEPS) 63%. By model: GEFS 58%, ECMWF ENS 65%, AIFS ENS 86%, AIGEFS 84%, GEPS 67%. By Thursday evening their middle tracks are almost on top of each other. Both take it to about 977 at its deepest.
Will the North Atlantic low become a bomb cyclone?
Unlikely. None of the 185 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it is. At 8 p.m. Tuesday, the centre was about 1,000 kilometres northeast of Ponta Delgada, with a central pressure near 980 .

How sure. 181 of 185 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path. Little has changed since the previous run.1

How strong. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 996 by Thursday. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .

What’s uncertain

How close it comes. For A Coruña, most forecasts put the between 25 and 240 kilometres away, most likely Friday 1 p.m.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Thursday. By Friday night, the is about 1,700 kilometres across.2

When it arrives

When the centre passes closest to each place, earliest to latest across the forecasts. Places are ordered by the most likely time.

Window of Most likely timeNight
is the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres. Shaded columns are night; times are in your time zone.

Rain and wind this week in Porto, A Coruña, Madrid, Bilbao, Barcelona, Marseille, Palma, Bordeaux and Brest.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracksStatus
NOAA
30 of 3112Z
arrived 1 h 13 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
50 of 5118Z
arrived 17 h 10 min ago
Older run (newer ones delayed)
ECMWF
51 of 5112Z
arrived 24 min ago
Latest run
NOAA
30 of 3106Z
arrived 4 h 15 min ago
Latest run
Environment Canada
20 of 2112Z
arrived 1 h 23 min ago
Latest run

Also tracking

  1. North Pacific low west of British ColumbiaLikely to pass 20–230 km S of Anchorage Wed night; 6 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  2. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 946 mb now and filling; all 185 forecasts show it
  3. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 951 mb now and filling; all 185 forecasts show it
  4. Ross Sea lowVery deep low bottoming out near 957 mb Wed afternoon, in the Southern Hemisphere; nearly all forecasts show it
  5. South Atlantic lowVery deep low bottoming out near 958 mb Wed afternoon, in the Southern Hemisphere; nearly all forecasts show it
  6. See all 26 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), ECMWF ENS (51), AIFS ENS (51), AIGEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres of a spot at any time in the next 10 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by Stormlines from the model fields.
  9. Reading these maps: , or the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  10. How often these forecasts turn out right: the season’s forecast check, AI vs physics.
  11. Stormlines storm ID: L-2026-2441.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines and place names from Natural Earth; sea areas from IHO Sea Areas, version 3 (Flanders Marine Institute, marineregions.org, CC BY 4.0; modified: simplified, some islands removed, names edited).

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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Stormlines Tracks: NOAA, ECMWF, Environment Canada

Full forecast
Through Sat 1 a.m. CET