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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherBarcelona, Spain

Rain is likely in Barcelona on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Barcelona Tue 2–8 a.m. CEST; 8 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more Tue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 1:03 a.m. CEST · times are Barcelona’s (CEST)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Barcelona this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Wednesday (4 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Thursday (8 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Friday (4 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.). Times are CEST.
How much rain will Barcelona get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 8 p.m. CEST (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 31 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 2 a.m. 6 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more in total; 2 in 10 forecasts bring 51 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Barcelona?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 27 km/h, Thu 8 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Barcelona?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 21°C (Sat 8 a.m.) to 26°C (Wed 2 p.m.) CEST. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Barcelona?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Barcelona this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 2–8 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.2 mmTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 5.1 mmTue 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.3 mmTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmWed 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSat 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmSun 2–8 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmSun 2–8 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, CEST.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29nearly all8 in 1013 mm · 5 in 1017 km/h22°C–23°C
Wed 304 in 101 in 1014 mm · 5 in 1012 km/h22°C–26°C
Thu 18 in 101 in 1015 mm · 6 in 1027 km/h22°C–25°C
Fri 24 in 101 in 1016 mm · 8 in 1017 km/h21°C–24°C
Sat 36 in 102 in 1021 mm · 8 in 1016 km/h21°C–23°C
Sun 46 in 103 in 1026 mm · 8 in 1018 km/h21°C–23°C
Mon 5 (part)5 in 102 in 1031 mm · 8 in 1014 km/h21°C–24°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 2 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Barcelona

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Barcelona this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Barcelona’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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