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Storm · Forecasts splitSouthern Ocean

The Southern Ocean low could move faster — or move more slowly

Southern Ocean — Very deep low near 953 mb now, about 1,450 km SE of South Georgia and filling; all 185 ensemble forecasts show it.

Updated Tues., Nov. 10, 6:46 p.m. UTC · 185 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment CanadaOne of the 5 forecast models is running late; its previous run is used.: low

Southern Ocean — Very deep low near 953 mb now, about 1,450 km SE of South Georgia and filling; all 185 ensemble forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Mon 9 Nov 18Z – Tue 10 Nov 12Z model runs · updated Tues., Nov. 10, 6:46 p.m. UTC

Where is the Southern Ocean low going?
The centre is about 1,450 kilometres southeast of South Georgia, moving east at about 25 km/h. The forecasts split: 5 in 10 move faster, while 5 in 10 move more slowly.
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: low. All 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes. The forecasts shifted about 290 kilometres east since the previous run.
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Broadly, with some differences. 7 in 10 AI- (AIFS ENS, AIGEFS) move faster, against 4 in 10 physics-ensemble forecasts (GEFS, ECMWF ENS, GEPS). By Wednesday afternoon the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 150 kilometres southwest of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 951 at its deepest.
Will the Southern Ocean low become a bomb cyclone?
Unlikely. None of the 185 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it is. At 7 p.m. Tuesday, the centre was about 1,450 kilometres southeast of South Georgia, with a central pressure near 953 .

How sure. All 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes. The forecasts shifted about 290 kilometres east since the previous run.1

How strong. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 960 by Wednesday. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .

What’s uncertain

Which way it turns. Five in 10 forecasts move faster; the other five in 10 move more slowly.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the is about 750 kilometres across.2

When it arrives

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays about 1,450 kilometres southeast of South Georgia.

What the forecasts said vs what happened

Collecting: so far at most 2 runs of any one model made 1 day ahead can be checked. We show how the forecasts did once a model has 4. How good are the forecasts this season?

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracksStatus
NOAA
31 of 3112Z
arrived 1 h 13 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
51 of 5118Z
arrived 17 h 10 min ago
Older run (newer ones delayed)
ECMWF
51 of 5112Z
arrived 24 min ago
Latest run
NOAA
31 of 3106Z
arrived 4 h 15 min ago
Latest run
Environment Canada
21 of 2112Z
arrived 1 h 23 min ago
Latest run

Also tracking

  1. North Pacific low west of British ColumbiaLikely to pass 20–230 km S of Anchorage Wed night; 6 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  2. North Atlantic lowLikely to pass 30–220 km SW of A Coruña Fri afternoon; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  3. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 946 mb now and filling; all 185 forecasts show it
  4. Ross Sea lowVery deep low bottoming out near 957 mb Wed afternoon, in the Southern Hemisphere; nearly all forecasts show it
  5. South Atlantic lowVery deep low bottoming out near 958 mb Wed afternoon, in the Southern Hemisphere; nearly all forecasts show it
  6. See all 26 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), ECMWF ENS (51), AIFS ENS (51), AIGEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres of a spot at any time in the next 9 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by Stormlines from the model fields.
  9. Reading these maps: , or the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  10. How often these forecasts turn out right: the season’s forecast check, AI vs physics.
  11. Stormlines storm ID: L-2026-2520.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines and place names from Natural Earth; sea areas from IHO Sea Areas, version 3 (Flanders Marine Institute, marineregions.org, CC BY 4.0; modified: simplified, some islands removed, names edited).

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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