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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherMadrid, Spain

Rain is likely in Madrid on Thursday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Madrid Thu 8 p.m.–2 a.m. CEST; 6 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 1:03 a.m. CEST · times are Madrid’s (CEST)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Madrid this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Thursday (9 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Friday (nearly all forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Saturday (9 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Sunday (9 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are CEST.
How much rain will Madrid get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 8 p.m. CEST (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 37 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 2 a.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more in total.
How windy will it get in Madrid?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 30 km/h, Fri 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Madrid?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 14°C (Tue 8 a.m.) to 25°C (Thu 2 p.m.) CEST. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Madrid?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Madrid this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.8 mmFri 2–8 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.5 mmFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.8 mmFri 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.9 mmSat 2–8 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.4 mmSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmSat 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.5 mmSun 2–8 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmSun 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmMon 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmMon 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mm

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, CEST.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1023 km/h14°C–24°C
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1026 km/h18°C–25°C
Thu 19 in 106 in 102.8 mm · <1 in 1015 km/h16°C–25°C
Fri 2nearly all6 in 1012 mm · 5 in 1030 km/h18°C–23°C
Sat 39 in 105 in 1020 mm · 9 in 1019 km/h17°C–22°C
Sun 49 in 103 in 1031 mm · nearly all18 km/h17°C–21°C
Mon 5 (part)7 in 103 in 1037 mm · nearly all19 km/h17°C–22°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 2 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Madrid

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Madrid this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Madrid’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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