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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherBordeaux, France

Rain is likely in Bordeaux on Wednesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Bordeaux Wed 8 p.m.–2 a.m. CEST; 6 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 1:03 a.m. CEST · times are Bordeaux’s (CEST)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Bordeaux this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (5 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Wednesday (nearly all forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Friday (6 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Saturday (7 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.). Drier: Thu (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are CEST.
How much rain will Bordeaux get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 8 p.m. CEST (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 17 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 2 a.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total; 3 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Bordeaux?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 39 km/h, Wed 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Bordeaux?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 15°C (Fri 8 a.m.) to 29°C (Tue 2 p.m.) CEST. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Bordeaux?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Bordeaux this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.5 mmThu 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmSat 2–8 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmSun 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmMon 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, CEST.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 295 in 101 in 100.5 mm · <1 in 1033 km/h19°C–29°C
Wed 30nearly all6 in 105.0 mm · 1 in 1039 km/h20°C–24°C
Thu 12 in 10<1 in 105.1 mm · 1 in 1018 km/h16°C–22°C
Fri 26 in 102 in 108.4 mm · 3 in 1022 km/h15°C–24°C
Sat 37 in 102 in 1013 mm · 6 in 1013 km/h17°C–23°C
Sun 46 in 102 in 1016 mm · 7 in 1013 km/h17°C–24°C
Mon 5 (part)3 in 10<1 in 1017 mm · 7 in 1020 km/h17°C–24°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 2 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Bordeaux

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Bordeaux this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Bordeaux’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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