Could pass near Tokyo Thu afternoon; 1 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 18Z – Sun 27 Sep 12Z model runs · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 3:48 a.m. GMT+9

Where is Typhoon Surigae going?: The centre is about 230 kilometres east of Naha, moving northeast at about 15 km/h. The most likely path takes it about 400 kilometres south of Tokyo by Thursday morning.
When will Typhoon Surigae be closest to Tokyo?: Most likely Thursday, Oct. 1, around noon GMT+9. Across the forecasts the comes between Wed noon and Fri 3 a.m. GMT+9. Most forecasts pass the centre 160–700 kilometres southeast of Tokyo.
What is the chance it passes within 160 kilometres of Tokyo?: 11%: 1 in 10 forecasts bring the storm’s centre within 160 kilometres of Tokyo. Elsewhere: Naha (Okinawa) 85%. Rain, wind and coastal flooding can reach well beyond 160 kilometres from the centre.
How sure is the forecast?: Path certainty: low. All 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes. The forecasts shifted about 60 kilometres southwest since the previous run.
Do the AI and physics models agree?: Largely, yes. Chance within 160 kilometres of Tokyo: AI ensembles (AIFS ENS, AIGEFS) 11%, physics ensembles (GEFS, ECMWF ENS, GEPS) 11%. By model: GEFS 26%, ECMWF ENS 2%, AIFS ENS 2%, AIGEFS 26%, GEPS 10%. By Wednesday morning their middle tracks are almost on top of each other. Both take it to about 979 at its deepest.

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it is. At 5 a.m. Monday, the centre was about 230 kilometres east of Naha, with a central pressure near 986 .

How sure. All 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes. The forecasts shifted about 60 kilometres southwest since the previous run.¹

How strong. It is near its strongest now. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 998 by Wednesday. One in 10 forecasts have it .

How close it comes. For Tokyo, most forecasts put the between 160 and 700 kilometres away, most likely Thursday noon.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Tuesday. By Friday afternoon, the is about 4,000 kilometres across.²

When the centre passes closest to each place, earliest to latest across the forecasts. Places are ordered by the most likely time.

Window of Most likely timeNight

is the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres. Shaded columns are night; times are in your time zone.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in