Storm · Forecast to formSouthern Ocean low in the South Atlantic · L-2026-0051
A new low is likely to form far southeast of South Georgia on Saturday night
Forecast to form Sat night, about 1,400 km SE of South Georgia; 8 in 10 forecasts show it.
Updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC · 103 from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment CanadaHigh confidence
Forecast to form Sat night, about 1,400 km SE of South Georgia; 8 in 10 forecasts show it.
Quick answers
As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 9:58 p.m. UTC
- Where will the Southern Ocean low in the South Atlantic form?
- Forecasts that develop it have the centre forming about 1,400 kilometres southeast of South Georgia on Saturday night. The most likely path takes it about 1,100 kilometres west of Mawson Station by Tuesday night.
- How sure is the forecast?
- High confidence. 80 of 103 show the storm, and they closely on its path (agreement 85 out of 100).
- Do the AI and physics models agree?
- Largely, yes. By Monday night the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 80 kilometres southeast of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 929 at its deepest.
- Will the Southern Ocean low in the South Atlantic become a bomb cyclone?
- 70% of forecasts (7 in 10) deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).
What we know
Where it forms. The forecasts that show it have the centre taking shape about 1,400 kilometres southeast of South Georgia on Saturday night, at about 967 .
How sure. 80 of 103 show the storm, and they closely on its path.1
How strong. It is still strengthening: forecasts deepen it to about 929 by Monday morning. Seven in 10 forecasts make it a , deepening about 24 hectopascals or more in a day.
What’s uncertain
Whether it forms. 80 of 103 develop it; the rest do not. Storms that exist only in the forecast can change a lot from run to run.
Later on. The forecasts fan out after Monday. By Tuesday night, the is about 950 kilometres across.2
When it arrives
No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays about 1,400 kilometres southeast of South Georgia.
DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print
How strong it gets
Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.
(lower is stronger)
Where the forecasts come from
| Model | Tracks | |
|---|---|---|
NOAA | 20 of 31 | 12Z |
ECMWF | 45 of 51 | 12Z |
Environment Canada | 15 of 21 | 12Z |