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Nor’easterNorth America

The November nor’easter 22 is likely to pass over or very near Washington on Thursday morning

Washington — Likely to pass 10–260 mi from Washington Thu morning; 8 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi.

Updated Wed., Nov. 11, 4:41 p.m. EST · 181 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment Canada: low

Washington — Likely to pass 10–260 mi from Washington Thu morning; 8 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi.

Quick answers

As of the Wed 11 Nov 12Z model run · updated Wed., Nov. 11, 4:41 p.m. EST

Where is the November nor’easter 22 going?
The centre is about 140 miles south of Chicago, moving east at about 30 mph. The most likely path takes it about 170 miles west of St. John’s by Saturday afternoon.
When will the November nor’easter 22 be closest to Washington?
Most likely Thursday, Nov. 12, around 9 a.m. EST. Across the forecasts the comes between Thu 6 a.m. and Thu 2 p.m. EST. Most forecasts pass the centre 10–260 miles from Washington.
What is the chance it passes within 100 miles of Washington?
83%: 8 in 10 forecasts bring the storm’s centre within 100 miles of Washington. Elsewhere: Dover 82%, Baltimore 82%, Philadelphia 74%, New York 56%. Rain, wind and coastal flooding can reach well beyond 100 miles from the centre.
How much rain could Washington get while the November nor’easter 22 passes?
From Wed 1 p.m. (when the forecast’s rain totals start) to Thu 7 p.m. EST, the end of the window when its centre is closest to Washington, the middle of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts brings 0.05 in of rain and melted snow to Washington; fewer than 1 in 10 bring 0.5 in. By Thu 1 a.m., when that window opens, the middle forecast has almost none yet. That is all the rain in that time, not only the November 22’s, from one model (GEFS) on a coarse grid; local official forecasts can differ. Washington: rain and wind this week →
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: low. 181 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes. Little has changed since the previous run.
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Broadly, with some differences. Chance within 100 miles of Washington: AI ensembles (AIFS ENS, AIGEFS) 84%, physics ensembles (GEFS, ECMWF ENS, GEPS) 83%. By model: GEFS 94%, ECMWF ENS 75%, AIFS ENS 82%, AIGEFS 87%, GEPS 86%. By Friday afternoon the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 180 miles east of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 988 at its deepest.
Will the November nor’easter 22 become a bomb cyclone?
8% of forecasts (1 in 10) deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it is. At 5 p.m. Wednesday, the centre was about 140 miles south of Chicago, with a central pressure near 1,006 .

How sure. 181 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes. Little has changed since the previous run.1

How strong. It is still strengthening: forecasts deepen it to about 984 by Saturday night. One in 10 forecasts make it a , deepening about 24 millibars or more in a day.

What’s uncertain

How close it comes. For Washington, most forecasts put the between 10 and 260 miles away, most likely Thursday 9 a.m.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Thursday. By Saturday night, the is about 1,300 miles across.2

When it arrives

When the centre passes closest to each place, earliest to latest across the forecasts. Places are ordered by the most likely time.

Window of Most likely timeNight
is the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 100 miles. Shaded columns are night; times are in your time zone.

Rain and wind this week in Washington, Annapolis, Baltimore, Dover, Rehoboth Beach, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Cape May and Toms River.

What the forecasts said vs what happened

Collecting: so far at most 1 run of any one model made 2 days ahead can be checked. We show how the forecasts did once a model has 4. How good are the forecasts this season?

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracksStatus
NOAA
31 of 3112Z
arrived 4 h 10 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
48 of 5112Z
arrived 17 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
50 of 5112Z
arrived 3 h ago
Latest run
NOAA
31 of 3112Z
arrived 1 h 25 min ago
Latest run
Environment Canada
21 of 2112Z
arrived 4 h 27 min ago
Latest run

Also tracking

  1. North Pacific low west of British ColumbiaLikely to pass 10–130 mi S of Anchorage Wed night; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi
  2. North Atlantic lowLikely to pass 10–80 mi from A Coruña Fri night; 9 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi
  3. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 950 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  4. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 954 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  5. South Atlantic lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 958 mb now and filling; all 185 forecasts show it
  6. See all 24 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), ECMWF ENS (51), AIFS ENS (51), AIGEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 100 miles of a spot at any time in the next 10 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by Stormlines from the model fields.
  9. Reading these maps: , or the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  10. How often these forecasts turn out right: the season’s forecast check, AI vs physics.
  11. Stormlines storm ID: NE-2026-45.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines and place names from Natural Earth; sea areas from IHO Sea Areas, version 3 (Flanders Marine Institute, marineregions.org, CC BY 4.0; modified: simplified, some islands removed, names edited).

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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