StormSouthern Ocean
The Southern Ocean low will slowly weaken as it heads southeast
Southern Ocean — Very deep low bottoming out near 951 mb Thu morning, over the Bellingshausen Sea; all 185 ensemble forecasts show it.
Updated Wed., Nov. 11, 9:41 p.m. UTC · 185 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment Canada: high
Southern Ocean — Very deep low bottoming out near 951 mb Thu morning, over the Bellingshausen Sea; all 185 ensemble forecasts show it.
Quick answers
As of the Wed 11 Nov 12Z model run · updated Wed., Nov. 11, 9:41 p.m. UTC
- Where is the Southern Ocean low going?
- The centre is in the South Pacific, moving southeast at about 70 km/h. The most likely path takes it over the Bellingshausen Sea by Saturday afternoon.
- How sure is the forecast?
- Path certainty: high. All 185 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path. Little has changed since the previous run.
- Do the AI and physics models agree?
- Largely, yes. By Friday night their middle tracks are almost on top of each other. Both take it to about 950 at its deepest.
- Will the Southern Ocean low become a bomb cyclone?
- Unlikely. None of the 185 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).
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What we know
Where it is. At 10 p.m. Wednesday, the centre was in the South Pacific, with a central pressure near 952 .
How sure. All 185 show the storm, and they broadly on its early path. Little has changed since the previous run.1
How strong. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 967 by Friday. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .
What’s uncertain
Later on. The forecasts fan out after Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, the is about 750 kilometres across.2
When it arrives
No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays in the South Pacific.
DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print
How strong it gets
Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.
(lower is stronger)
Where the forecasts come from
| Model | Tracks | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|
NOAA | 31 of 31 | 12Z arrived 4 h 10 min ago | Latest run |
ECMWF | 51 of 51 | 12Z arrived 17 min ago | Latest run |
ECMWF | 51 of 51 | 12Z arrived 3 h ago | Latest run |
NOAA | 31 of 31 | 12Z arrived 1 h 25 min ago | Latest run |
Environment Canada | 21 of 21 | 12Z arrived 4 h 27 min ago | Latest run |