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StormNorth Atlantic

The North Atlantic low off Nova Scotia will slowly weaken as it heads northwest

Gander, Newfoundland — Could pass near Gander in the next few hours; 2 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi.

Updated Wed., Nov. 11, 6:11 p.m. GMT-3:30 · 181 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment Canada: low

Gander, Newfoundland — Could pass near Gander in the next few hours; 2 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi.

Quick answers

As of the Wed 11 Nov 12Z model run · updated Wed., Nov. 11, 6:11 p.m. GMT-3:30

Where is the North Atlantic low off Nova Scotia going?
The centre is about 130 miles northeast of Gander, moving northwest at about 25 mph. The most likely path takes it about 160 miles northwest of Gander by Friday morning.
When will the North Atlantic low off Nova Scotia be closest to Gander?
Most likely Wednesday, Nov. 11, around 7 p.m. GMT-3:30. Across the forecasts the comes between Wed 2 p.m. and Thu 1 a.m. GMT-3:30. Most forecasts pass the centre 90–160 miles northeast of Gander.
What is the chance it passes within 100 miles of Gander?
17%: 2 in 10 forecasts bring the storm’s centre within 100 miles of Gander. Elsewhere: St. John's 42%. Rain, wind and coastal flooding can reach well beyond 100 miles from the centre.
How much rain could Gander get while the North Atlantic low off Nova Scotia passes?
From Wed 2 p.m. to Thu 2 a.m. GMT-3:30, the end of the window when its centre is closest to Gander, the middle of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts brings 0.22 in of rain and melted snow to Gander; fewer than 1 in 10 bring 0.5 in. That is all the rain in that time, not only the North Atlantic low off Nova Scotia’s, from one model (GEFS) on a coarse grid; local official forecasts can differ. Gander: rain and wind this week →
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: low. 181 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes. Little has changed since the previous run.
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Largely, yes. Chance within 100 miles of Gander: AI ensembles (AIFS ENS, AIGEFS) 10%, physics ensembles (GEFS, ECMWF ENS, GEPS) 23%. By model: GEFS 35%, ECMWF ENS 10%, AIFS ENS 8%, AIGEFS 13%, GEPS 38%. By Friday morning the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 70 miles west of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 984 at its deepest.
Will the North Atlantic low off Nova Scotia become a bomb cyclone?
Unlikely. None of the 185 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it is. At 6 p.m. Wednesday, the centre was about 130 miles northeast of Gander, with a central pressure near 985 .

How sure. 181 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes. Little has changed since the previous run.1

How strong. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 1,000 by Friday. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .

What’s uncertain

How close it comes. For Gander, most forecasts put the between 90 and 160 miles away, most likely Wednesday 7 p.m.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Friday. By Friday morning, the is about 1,250 miles across.2

When it arrives

When the centre passes closest to each place, earliest to latest across the forecasts. Places are ordered by the most likely time.

Window of Most likely timeNight
is the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 100 miles. Shaded columns are night; times are in your time zone.

Rain and wind this week in St. John's, Gander, Happy Valley-Goose Bay and Sept-Îles.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracksStatus
NOAA
30 of 3112Z
arrived 4 h 10 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
49 of 5112Z
arrived 17 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
50 of 5112Z
arrived 3 h ago
Latest run
NOAA
31 of 3112Z
arrived 1 h 25 min ago
Latest run
Environment Canada
21 of 2112Z
arrived 4 h 27 min ago
Latest run

Also tracking

  1. North Pacific low west of British ColumbiaLikely to pass 10–130 mi S of Anchorage Wed night; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi
  2. North Atlantic lowLikely to pass 10–80 mi from A Coruña Fri night; 9 in 10 forecasts bring it within 100 mi
  3. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 950 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  4. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 954 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  5. South Atlantic lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 958 mb now and filling; all 185 forecasts show it
  6. See all 24 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), ECMWF ENS (51), AIFS ENS (51), AIGEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 100 miles of a spot at any time in the next 7 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by Stormlines from the model fields.
  9. Reading these maps: , or the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  10. How often these forecasts turn out right: the season’s forecast check, AI vs physics.
  11. Stormlines storm ID: NE-2026-37.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines and place names from Natural Earth; sea areas from IHO Sea Areas, version 3 (Flanders Marine Institute, marineregions.org, CC BY 4.0; modified: simplified, some islands removed, names edited).

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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Stormlines Tracks: NOAA, ECMWF, Environment Canada

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