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Storm · Forecasts splitEurope

The Norwegian Sea low could take a southern track — or take a northern track

Oslo, Norway — Could pass near Oslo Thu morning; 4 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km.

Updated Wed., Nov. 11, 10:41 p.m. CET · 183 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment Canada: low

Oslo, Norway — Could pass near Oslo Thu morning; 4 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km.

Quick answers

As of the Wed 11 Nov 12Z model run · updated Wed., Nov. 11, 10:41 p.m. CET

Where is the Norwegian Sea low going?
The centre is about 220 kilometres northeast of Lerwick, moving south at about 60 km/h. The forecasts split: 8 in 10 take a southern track, while 2 in 10 take a northern track.
When will the Norwegian Sea low be closest to Oslo?
Most likely Thursday, Nov. 12, around 7 a.m. CET. Across the forecasts the comes between Thu 1 a.m. and Thu 4 p.m. CET. Most forecasts pass the centre 20–550 kilometres southwest of Oslo.
What is the chance it passes within 160 kilometres of Oslo?
44%: 4 in 10 forecasts bring the storm’s centre within 160 kilometres of Oslo. Elsewhere: Stavanger 52%, Bergen 42%, Stockholm 36%, Helsinki 25%. Rain, wind and coastal flooding can reach well beyond 160 kilometres from the centre.
How much rain could Oslo get while the Norwegian Sea low passes?
From Wed 7 p.m. (when the forecast’s rain totals start) to Thu 7 p.m. CET, the end of the window when its centre is closest to Oslo, the middle of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts brings 12 mm of rain and melted snow to Oslo; 4 in 10 bring 13 mm or more. By Thu 1 a.m., when that window opens, the middle forecast has almost none yet. That is all the rain in that time, not only the Norwegian Sea low’s, from one model (GEFS) on a coarse grid; local official forecasts can differ. Oslo: rain and wind this week →
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: low. 183 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes.
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Largely, yes. 7 in 10 AI- (AIFS ENS, AIGEFS) take a southern track, against 8 in 10 physics-ensemble forecasts (GEFS, ECMWF ENS, GEPS). By Thursday evening the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 60 kilometres west of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 982 at its deepest.
Will the Norwegian Sea low become a bomb cyclone?
Unlikely. None of the 185 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it is. At 11 p.m. Wednesday, the centre was about 220 kilometres northeast of Lerwick, with a central pressure near 989 .

How sure. 183 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes.1

How strong. It is still strengthening: forecasts deepen it to about 982 by Thursday evening. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .

What’s uncertain

Which way it turns. Eight in 10 forecasts take a southern track; the other two in 10 take a northern track. By Thursday evening the two paths are about 20 kilometres apart.

How close it comes. For Oslo, most forecasts put the between 20 and 550 kilometres away, most likely Thursday 7 a.m.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Thursday. By Thursday evening, the is about 550 kilometres across.2

When it arrives

When the centre passes closest to each place, earliest to latest across the forecasts. Places are ordered by the most likely time.

Window of Most likely timeNight
is the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres. Shaded columns are night; times are in your time zone.

Rain and wind this week in Trondheim, Lerwick, Bergen, Stavanger, Oslo, Gothenburg, Stockholm and Helsinki.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracksStatus
NOAA
31 of 3112Z
arrived 4 h 18 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
51 of 5112Z
arrived 25 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
49 of 5112Z
arrived 3 h 7 min ago
Latest run
NOAA
31 of 3112Z
arrived 1 h 33 min ago
Latest run
Environment Canada
21 of 2112Z
arrived 4 h 35 min ago
Latest run

Also tracking

  1. North Pacific low west of British ColumbiaLikely to pass 20–210 km S of Anchorage Wed night; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  2. North Atlantic lowLikely to pass 15–130 km from A Coruña Fri night; 9 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  3. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 950 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  4. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 954 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  5. South Atlantic lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 958 mb now and filling; all 185 forecasts show it
  6. See all 24 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), ECMWF ENS (51), AIFS ENS (51), AIGEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres of a spot at any time in the next 10 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by Stormlines from the model fields.
  9. Reading these maps: , or the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  10. How often these forecasts turn out right: the season’s forecast check, AI vs physics.
  11. Stormlines storm ID: L-2026-2813.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines and place names from Natural Earth; sea areas from IHO Sea Areas, version 3 (Flanders Marine Institute, marineregions.org, CC BY 4.0; modified: simplified, some islands removed, names edited).

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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Stormlines Tracks: NOAA, ECMWF, Environment Canada

Full forecast
Through Fri 7 a.m. CET