Yukon — Low bottoming out near 986 mb Thu morning, about 500 mi N of Whitehorse; 7 in 10 forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Wed 11 Nov 12Z model run · updated Wed., Nov. 11, 9:41 p.m. UTC

Where is the low over Alaska going?: The centre is about 500 miles north of Whitehorse, over Yukon, moving southwest at about 5 mph. The most likely path takes it about 290 miles northeast of Anchorage by Friday evening.
How sure is the forecast?: Path certainty: low. 122 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes.
Do the AI and physics models agree?: Broadly, with some differences. By Friday evening the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 160 miles east of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 987 at its deepest.
Will the low over Alaska become a bomb cyclone?: Unlikely. None of the 185 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it is. At 10 p.m. Wednesday, the centre was about 500 miles north of Whitehorse, over Yukon, with a central pressure near 988 .

How sure. 122 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes.¹

How strong. Forecasts have it filling steadily, to about 999 by Friday. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Thursday. By Friday evening, the is about 2,100 miles across.²

When the centre passes closest to each place, earliest to latest across the forecasts. Places are ordered by the most likely time.

Window of Most likely timeNight

is the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 100 miles. Shaded columns are night; times are in your time zone.

Rain and wind this week in Anchorage.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in