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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

Storm · Forecast to formEurope

A new low might form west of Cork on Sunday morning

Oslo, Norway — Could pass near Oslo Tue morning; 2 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km.

Updated Wed., Nov. 11, 10:41 p.m. CET · 58 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment Canada: low

Oslo, Norway — Could pass near Oslo Tue morning; 2 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km.

Quick answers

As of the Wed 11 Nov 12Z model run · updated Wed., Nov. 11, 10:41 p.m. CET

Where will the North Sea low form?
Forecasts that develop it have the centre forming about 190 kilometres west of Cork on Sunday morning. The most likely path takes it about 400 kilometres east of Trondheim by Wednesday morning, Nov. 18.
When will the North Sea low be closest to Oslo?
Most likely Tuesday, Nov. 17, around 9 a.m. CET. Across the forecasts the comes between Mon 6 p.m. and Wed 1 a.m. CET. Most forecasts pass the centre 25–400 kilometres southeast of Oslo.
What is the chance it passes within 160 kilometres of Oslo?
19%: 2 in 10 forecasts bring the storm’s centre within 160 kilometres of Oslo. Elsewhere: Newcastle 18%, Manchester 14%, Dublin 12%, Belfast 10%. Rain, wind and coastal flooding can reach well beyond 160 kilometres from the centre.
How much rain could Oslo get while the North Sea low passes?
From Wed 7 p.m. (when the forecast’s rain totals start) to Wed 1 a.m. CET, the end of the window when its centre is closest to Oslo, the middle of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts brings 36 mm of rain and melted snow to Oslo; nearly all bring 13 mm or more and 7 in 10 bring 25 mm or more; 1 in 10 bring 51 mm or more. By Mon 1 p.m., when that window opens, the middle forecast already has 17 mm. That is all the rain in that time, not only the North Sea low’s, from one model (GEFS) on a coarse grid; local official forecasts can differ. Oslo: rain and wind this week →
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: low. 58 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes.
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Broadly, with some differences. Chance within 160 kilometres of Oslo: AI ensembles (AIFS ENS, AIGEFS) 10%, physics ensembles (GEFS, ECMWF ENS, GEPS) 27%. By model: GEFS 19%, ECMWF ENS 29%, AIFS ENS 6%, AIGEFS 16%, GEPS 33%. By Tuesday morning, Nov. 17 the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 100 kilometres north of the physics ensembles’. At its deepest, the AI ensembles take it to about 966 and the physics ensembles to about 973 mb.
Will the North Sea low become a bomb cyclone?
12% of forecasts (1 in 10) deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it forms. The forecasts that show it have the centre taking shape about 190 kilometres west of Cork on Sunday morning, at about 983 .

How sure. 58 of 185 show the storm, and they on where it goes.1

How strong. It is still strengthening: forecasts deepen it to about 972 by Monday morning. One in 10 forecasts make it a , deepening about 24 millibars or more in a day.

What’s uncertain

Whether it forms. 58 of 185 develop it; the rest do not. Storms that exist only in the forecast can change a lot from run to run.

How close it comes. For Oslo, most forecasts put the between 25 and 400 kilometres away, most likely Tuesday 9 a.m.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Sunday. By Wednesday evening, Nov. 18, the is about 1,150 kilometres across.2

When it arrives

When the centre passes closest to each place, earliest to latest across the forecasts. Places are ordered by the most likely time.

Window of Most likely timeNight
is the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres. Shaded columns are night; times are in your time zone.

Rain and wind this week in Cork, Dublin, Belfast, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Stavanger, Gothenburg and Oslo.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracksStatus
NOAA
10 of 3112Z
arrived 4 h 10 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
23 of 5112Z
arrived 17 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
8 of 5112Z
arrived 3 h ago
Latest run
NOAA
7 of 3112Z
arrived 1 h 25 min ago
Latest run
Environment Canada
10 of 2112Z
arrived 4 h 27 min ago
Latest run

Also tracking

  1. North Pacific low west of British ColumbiaLikely to pass 20–210 km S of Anchorage Wed night; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  2. North Atlantic lowLikely to pass 15–130 km from A Coruña Fri night; 9 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  3. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 950 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  4. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 954 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  5. South Atlantic lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 958 mb now and filling; all 185 forecasts show it
  6. See all 24 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), ECMWF ENS (51), AIFS ENS (51), AIGEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres of a spot at any time in the next 10 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by Stormlines from the model fields.
  9. Reading these maps: , or the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  10. How often these forecasts turn out right: the season’s forecast check, AI vs physics.
  11. Stormlines storm ID: L-2026-2799.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines and place names from Natural Earth; sea areas from IHO Sea Areas, version 3 (Flanders Marine Institute, marineregions.org, CC BY 4.0; modified: simplified, some islands removed, names edited).

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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Stormlines Tracks: NOAA, ECMWF, Environment Canada

Full forecast
Through Wed 7 p.m. CET