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Storm · Forecast to formSouthern Ocean

A new low could form over the Southern Ocean south of the South Sandwich Islands on Thursday evening

Southern Ocean — Forecast to form Thu evening, about 1,150 km SE of South Georgia; 6 in 10 forecasts show it.

Updated Wed., Nov. 11, 9:41 p.m. UTC · 109 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment Canada: high

In 3 in 10 forecasts it forms Thu evening as the Weddell Sea low fades nearby. Often that is one weather system, handing over from one low to the next.

Southern Ocean — Forecast to form Thu evening, about 1,150 km SE of South Georgia; 6 in 10 forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Wed 11 Nov 12Z model run · updated Wed., Nov. 11, 9:41 p.m. UTC

Where will the Southern Ocean low east of the South Sandwich Islands form?
Forecasts that develop it have the centre forming about 1,150 kilometres southeast of South Georgia on Thursday evening. The most likely path takes it in the South Atlantic by Saturday afternoon.
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: high. 109 of 185 show the storm, and they closely on its path. Little has changed since the previous run.
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Largely, yes. By Saturday afternoon the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 100 kilometres north of the physics ensembles’. Both take it to about 953 at its deepest.
Will the Southern Ocean low east of the South Sandwich Islands become a bomb cyclone?
4% of forecasts (fewer than 1 in 10) deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it forms. The forecasts that show it have the centre taking shape about 1,150 kilometres southeast of South Georgia on Thursday evening, at about 965 .

How sure. 109 of 185 show the storm, and they closely on its path. Little has changed since the previous run.1

How strong. It is still strengthening: forecasts deepen it to about 949 by Saturday morning. Fewer than one in 10 forecasts make it a , deepening about 24 millibars or more in a day.

What’s uncertain

Whether it forms. 109 of 185 develop it; the rest do not. Storms that exist only in the forecast can change a lot from run to run.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Friday. By Saturday afternoon, the is about 550 kilometres across.2

When it arrives

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays about 1,150 kilometres southeast of South Georgia.

What the forecasts said vs what happened

Collecting: so far at most 1 run of any one model made 2 days ahead can be checked. We show how the forecasts did once a model has 4. How good are the forecasts this season?

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracksStatus
NOAA
25 of 3112Z
arrived 4 h 18 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
25 of 5112Z
arrived 25 min ago
Latest run
ECMWF
28 of 5112Z
arrived 3 h 7 min ago
Latest run
NOAA
23 of 3112Z
arrived 1 h 33 min ago
Latest run
Environment Canada
8 of 2112Z
arrived 4 h 35 min ago
Latest run

Also tracking

  1. North Pacific low west of British ColumbiaLikely to pass 20–210 km S of Anchorage Wed night; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  2. North Atlantic lowLikely to pass 15–130 km from A Coruña Fri night; 9 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  3. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 950 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  4. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 954 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  5. South Atlantic lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 958 mb now and filling; all 185 forecasts show it
  6. See all 24 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), ECMWF ENS (51), AIFS ENS (51), AIGEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres of a spot at any time in the next 8 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by Stormlines from the model fields.
  9. Reading these maps: , or the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  10. How often these forecasts turn out right: the season’s forecast check, AI vs physics.
  11. Stormlines storm ID: L-2026-2585.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines and place names from Natural Earth; sea areas from IHO Sea Areas, version 3 (Flanders Marine Institute, marineregions.org, CC BY 4.0; modified: simplified, some islands removed, names edited).

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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