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StormArctic

The Barents Sea low is forecast to deepen to about 967 mb on Sunday evening

Stockholm — Could pass near Stockholm Thu night; 2 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km.

Updated Wed., Nov. 11, 9:29 p.m. CET · 46 forecast tracks from NOAA, ECMWF and Environment Canada: low

This storm is no longer in our active list. This is its last forecast, from the Wed 11 Nov 06Z–12Z runs.

Stockholm — Could pass near Stockholm Thu night; 2 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km.

Quick answers

As of the Wed 11 Nov 06Z–12Z model runs · updated Wed., Nov. 11, 9:29 p.m. CET

Where is the Barents Sea low going?
The centre is about 130 kilometres east of Bergen, moving south at about 45 km/h. The most likely path takes it about 140 kilometres northwest of Murmansk by Saturday night.
When will the Barents Sea low be closest to Stockholm?
Most likely Friday, Nov. 13, around 4 a.m. CET. Across the forecasts the comes between Thu 9 p.m. and Fri 9 a.m. CET. Most forecasts pass the centre 30–1,050 kilometres from Stockholm.
What is the chance it passes within 160 kilometres of Stockholm?
16%: 2 in 10 forecasts bring the storm’s centre within 160 kilometres of Stockholm. Elsewhere: Helsinki 16%, Oslo 15%, Gothenburg 14%, Bergen 12%. Rain, wind and coastal flooding can reach well beyond 160 kilometres from the centre.
How much rain could Stockholm get while the Barents Sea low passes?
From Wed 7 p.m. (when the forecast’s rain totals start) to Fri 1 p.m. CET, the end of the window when its centre is closest to Stockholm, the middle of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts brings 6.3 mm of rain and melted snow to Stockholm; 1 in 10 bring 13 mm or more. By Thu 7 p.m., when that window opens, the middle forecast already has 4.6 mm. That is all the rain in that time, not only the Barents Sea low’s, from one model (GEFS) on a coarse grid; local official forecasts can differ. Stockholm: rain and wind this week →
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: low. 46 of 185 show the storm, and they closely on its path. The forecasts shifted about 140 kilometres west since the previous run.
Do the AI and physics models agree?
Largely, yes. Chance within 160 kilometres of Stockholm: AI ensembles (AIFS ENS, AIGEFS) 21%, physics ensembles (GEFS, ECMWF ENS, GEPS) 13%. By model: GEFS 16%, ECMWF ENS 14%, AIFS ENS 29%, AIGEFS 6%, GEPS 5%. By Friday night the AI ensembles’ middle track is about 60 kilometres south of the physics ensembles’. At its deepest, the AI ensembles take it to about 970 and the physics ensembles to about 964 mb.
Will the Barents Sea low become a bomb cyclone?
Unlikely. None of the 185 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it is. At 11 p.m. Wednesday, the centre was about 130 kilometres east of Bergen, with a central pressure near 990 .

How sure. 46 of 185 show the storm, and they closely on its path. The forecasts shifted about 140 kilometres west since the previous run.1

How strong. It is still strengthening: forecasts deepen it to about 967 by Sunday evening. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .

What’s uncertain

How close it comes. For Stockholm, most forecasts put the between 30 and 1,050 kilometres away, most likely Friday 4 a.m.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Thursday. By Tuesday morning, Nov. 17, the is about 1,150 kilometres across.2

When it arrives

When the centre passes closest to each place, earliest to latest across the forecasts. Places are ordered by the most likely time.

Window of Most likely timeNight
is the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres. Shaded columns are night; times are in your time zone.

Rain and wind this week in Bergen, Stavanger, Oslo, Gothenburg, Stockholm and Helsinki.

What the forecasts said vs what happened

Collecting: so far at most 1 run of any one model made 4 days ahead can be checked. We show how the forecasts did once a model has 4. How good are the forecasts this season?

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracks
NOAA
11 of 3112Z
arrived 4 h 10 min ago
ECMWF
10 of 5106Z
arrived 7 h 19 min ago
ECMWF
19 of 5112Z
arrived 3 h ago
NOAA
4 of 3112Z
arrived 1 h 25 min ago
Environment Canada
2 of 2112Z
arrived 4 h 27 min ago

Also tracking

  1. North Pacific low west of British ColumbiaLikely to pass 20–210 km S of Anchorage Wed night; 7 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  2. North Atlantic lowLikely to pass 15–130 km from A Coruña Fri night; 9 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  3. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 950 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  4. Southern Ocean lowVery deep low bottoming out near 954 mb Wed night, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  5. South Atlantic lowVery deep low in the Southern Hemisphere, near 958 mb now and filling; all 185 forecasts show it
  6. See all 24 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), ECMWF ENS (51), AIFS ENS (51), AIGEFS (31), GEPS (21). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres of a spot at any time in the next 10 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP.
  6. Data Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. This service is based on data and products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Source: www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0.
  8. Cyclone tracks computed by Stormlines from the model fields.
  9. Reading these maps: , or the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  10. How often these forecasts turn out right: the season’s forecast check, AI vs physics.
  11. Stormlines storm ID: L-2026-2554.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines and place names from Natural Earth; sea areas from IHO Sea Areas, version 3 (Flanders Marine Institute, marineregions.org, CC BY 4.0; modified: simplified, some islands removed, names edited).

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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Stormlines Tracks: NOAA, ECMWF, Environment Canada

Full forecast
Through Tue 7 a.m. CET