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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherWinnipeg, MB

Rain is likely in Winnipeg on Tuesday

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Winnipeg Tue 1–7 a.m. CDT; 1 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 6:03 p.m. CDT · times are Winnipeg’s (CDT)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Winnipeg this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (7 in 10 forecasts, 1–7 a.m.); Saturday (5 in 10 forecasts, 7 a.m.–1 p.m.). Drier: Wed, Thu, Fri, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are CDT.
How much rain will Winnipeg get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 1 p.m. CDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.11 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 7 p.m. 2 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total.
How windy will it get in Winnipeg?
Gusts over 30 mph: 2 in 10 forecasts at Wed 1 a.m. CDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 26 mph, Thu 1 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Winnipeg?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 38°F (Mon., Oct. 5, 7 a.m.) to 67°F (Tue 7 p.m.) CDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Winnipeg?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Winnipeg this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 1–7 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inTue 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inTue 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 1–7 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSat 1–7 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSat 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 1–7 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 1–7 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, CDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1016 mph55°F
Tue 297 in 101 in 100.05 in · <1 in 1020 mph55°F–67°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 100.05 in · <1 in 1025 mph53°F–64°F
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 100.05 in · <1 in 1026 mph46°F–55°F
Fri 2<1 in 10<1 in 100.06 in · <1 in 1011 mph42°F–56°F
Sat 35 in 102 in 100.11 in · 2 in 1020 mph47°F–54°F
Sun 41 in 10<1 in 100.11 in · 2 in 1024 mph42°F–51°F
Mon 5 (part)<1 in 10<1 in 100.11 in · 2 in 1016 mph38°F–53°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 7 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Winnipeg

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Winnipeg this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Winnipeg’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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