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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherWest Palm Beach, FL

Rain is likely in West Palm Beach on Tuesday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to West Palm Beach Tue 2–8 p.m. EDT; 4 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are West Palm Beach’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in West Palm Beach this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (9 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Wednesday (7 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Thursday (9 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Friday (8 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.). Times are EDT.
How much rain will West Palm Beach get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 1.4 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more in total; 1 in 10 forecasts bring 2 in or more.
How windy will it get in West Palm Beach?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 20 mph, Fri 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in West Palm Beach?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 78°F (Tue 8 p.m.) to 85°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for West Palm Beach?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of West Palm Beach this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.09 inTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inWed 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 inWed 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inThu 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.09 inThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.10 inThu 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.09 inThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inFri 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inFri 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSat 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSat 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSun 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 107 mph81°F
Tue 299 in 104 in 100.17 in · 1 in 1010 mph78°F–83°F
Wed 307 in 103 in 100.46 in · 5 in 1013 mph78°F–83°F
Thu 19 in 105 in 100.95 in · 7 in 1018 mph81°F–84°F
Fri 28 in 101 in 101.0 in · 8 in 1020 mph83°F–85°F
Sat 37 in 101 in 101.2 in · 9 in 1019 mph82°F–84°F
Sun 47 in 101 in 101.3 in · 9 in 1017 mph82°F–84°F
Mon 5 (part)6 in 101 in 101.4 in · 9 in 1014 mph81°F–84°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near West Palm Beach

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near West Palm Beach this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at West Palm Beach’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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