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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherWarsaw, Poland

Little or no rain in the forecasts for Warsaw this week

Fewer than 3 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain in any six hours through Mon., Oct. 5.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 1:03 a.m. CEST · times are Warsaw’s (CEST)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Warsaw this week?
Probably not much: in no six-hour period do 3 in 10 forecasts bring measurable rain. Times are CEST.
How much rain will Warsaw get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 8 p.m. CEST (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has almost no rain or melted snow, counting from Tue 2 a.m. Fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm in total.
How windy will it get in Warsaw?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 35 km/h, Thu 8 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Warsaw?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 9°C (Sat 8 a.m.) to 21°C (Wed 2 p.m.) CEST. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Warsaw?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Warsaw this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, CEST.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1024 km/h12°C–21°C
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1031 km/h12°C–21°C
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1035 km/h12°C–20°C
Fri 2<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1030 km/h10°C–19°C
Sat 3<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1021 km/h9°C–20°C
Sun 41 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1017 km/h10°C–20°C
Mon 5 (part)1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1022 km/h11°C–19°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 2 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Warsaw

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Warsaw this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Warsaw’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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