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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherVictoria, BC

Rain is likely in Victoria on Monday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Victoria Mon 5–11 p.m. PDT; 7 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 4:03 p.m. PDT · times are Victoria’s (PDT)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Victoria this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (nearly all forecasts, 5–11 p.m.); Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 11 p.m.–5 a.m.); Thursday (3 in 10 forecasts, 5–11 a.m.). Drier: Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are PDT.
How much rain will Victoria get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 11 a.m. PDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.96 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 5 p.m. 9 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Victoria?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 20 mph, Tue 5 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Victoria?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 49°F (Wed 5 a.m.) to 60°F (Sun., Oct. 4, 5 p.m.) PDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Victoria?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Victoria this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 5–11 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.12 inMon 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.31 inTue 5–11 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.22 inTue 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inTue 5–11 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 5–11 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 5–11 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 5–11 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 5–11 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 5–11 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 5–11 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 5–11 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 5–11 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 5–11 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 5–11 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 5–11 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, PDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)nearly all7 in 100.12 in · <1 in 1012 mph54°F–58°F
Tue 29nearly allnearly all0.73 in · 8 in 1020 mph51°F–58°F
Wed 302 in 101 in 100.74 in · 8 in 108 mph49°F–54°F
Thu 13 in 102 in 100.89 in · 9 in 109 mph50°F–55°F
Fri 22 in 101 in 100.96 in · 9 in 106 mph51°F–56°F
Sat 3<1 in 10<1 in 100.96 in · 9 in 1011 mph51°F–58°F
Sun 4<1 in 10<1 in 100.96 in · 9 in 1010 mph54°F–60°F
Mon 5 (part)1 in 101 in 100.96 in · 9 in 106 mph55°F–60°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 5 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Victoria

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Victoria this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Victoria’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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