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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherUnalaska, AK

Rain is likely in Unalaska on Tuesday

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Unalaska Tue 4–10 p.m. AKDT.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 3:03 p.m. AKDT · times are Unalaska’s (AKDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Unalaska this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (7 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 p.m.); Wednesday (9 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 a.m.); Thursday (9 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 a.m.); Friday (8 in 10 forecasts, 10 p.m.–4 a.m.). Times are AKDT.
How much rain will Unalaska get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 10 a.m. AKDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.85 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 4 p.m. 9 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Unalaska?
Gusts over 40 mph: 3 in 10 forecasts at Thu 4 p.m. AKDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 36 mph, Thu 10 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Unalaska?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 45°F (Sat 10 a.m.) to 48°F (Sun., Oct. 4, 4 p.m.) AKDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Unalaska?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Unalaska this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inTue 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inWed 4–10 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 inWed 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inWed 4–10 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inWed 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inThu 4–10 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.09 inThu 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.11 inThu 4–10 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inThu 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inFri 4–10 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inFri 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSat 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 4–10 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 4–10 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inMon 4–10 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, AKDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1017 mph46°F
Tue 297 in 10<1 in 100.04 in · <1 in 1021 mph46°F–47°F
Wed 309 in 102 in 100.17 in · <1 in 1019 mph46°F–47°F
Thu 19 in 105 in 100.57 in · 6 in 1036 mph · 3 in 10 >40 mph46°F–47°F
Fri 28 in 104 in 100.75 in · 7 in 1027 mph46°F–46°F
Sat 35 in 101 in 100.75 in · 7 in 1019 mph45°F–47°F
Sun 47 in 101 in 100.82 in · 7 in 1023 mph47°F–48°F
Mon 5 (part)8 in 10<1 in 100.85 in · 9 in 1023 mph · 1 in 10 >40 mph46°F–47°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 4 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Unalaska

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Unalaska this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Unalaska’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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