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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherTaipei, Taiwan

Rain is likely in Taipei on Friday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Taipei Fri 2–8 p.m. GMT+8; 5 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more Fri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 7:03 a.m. GMT+8 · times are Taipei’s (GMT+8)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Taipei this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Thursday (5 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Friday (9 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Saturday (8 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Sunday, Oct. 4 (8 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.). Drier: Wed (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+8.
How much rain will Taipei get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 2 a.m. GMT+8 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 21 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 8 a.m. 8 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total; 2 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Taipei?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 28 km/h, Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Taipei?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 21°C (Tues., Oct. 6, 2 a.m.) to 31°C (Tue 2 p.m.) GMT+8. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Taipei?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Taipei this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.3 mmFri 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.0 mmFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmSat 2–8 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmSat 2–8 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSun 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmMon 2–8 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.0 mmMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmMon 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmMon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mm

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+8.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1012 km/h26°C–31°C
Wed 301 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 109 km/h24°C–30°C
Thu 15 in 10<1 in 100.7 mm · <1 in 1015 km/h24°C–30°C
Fri 29 in 105 in 109.1 mm · 3 in 1028 km/h24°C–26°C
Sat 38 in 101 in 1011 mm · 4 in 1023 km/h23°C–26°C
Sun 48 in 101 in 1014 mm · 6 in 1019 km/h23°C–27°C
Mon 59 in 103 in 1021 mm · 8 in 1028 km/h22°C–23°C
Tue 6 (part)–––24 km/h21°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 8 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Taipei

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Taipei this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Taipei’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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