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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherStavanger, Norway

Rain is likely in Stavanger on Thursday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Stavanger Thu 2–8 p.m. CEST; 6 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more Thu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 1:03 a.m. CEST · times are Stavanger’s (CEST)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Stavanger this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Thursday (9 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Friday (5 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Saturday (8 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.); Sunday, Oct. 4 (7 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are CEST.
How much rain will Stavanger get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 8 p.m. CEST (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 30 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 2 a.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more in total; 1 in 10 forecasts bring 51 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Stavanger?
Gusts over 80 km/h: 6 in 10 forecasts at Wed 2 p.m. CEST. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 82 km/h, Wed 2 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Stavanger?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 10°C (Tue 8 a.m.) to 18°C (Wed 2 p.m.) CEST. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Stavanger?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Stavanger this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.6 mmThu 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 4.8 mmThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmFri 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.3 mmSat 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmMon 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmMon 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mm

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, CEST.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 292 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1044 km/h10°C–15°C
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1080 km/h · nearly all >64 km/h14°C–18°C
Thu 19 in 106 in 1010 mm · 5 in 1072 km/h · 9 in 10 >64 km/h13°C–15°C
Fri 25 in 101 in 1013 mm · 5 in 1022 km/h12°C–14°C
Sat 38 in 103 in 1019 mm · 7 in 1024 km/h12°C–13°C
Sun 47 in 103 in 1026 mm · 8 in 1024 km/h10°C–12°C
Mon 5 (part)7 in 103 in 1030 mm · 9 in 1025 km/h12°C–13°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 2 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Stavanger

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Stavanger this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Stavanger’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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