StormlinesStorm tracks, explained
Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

Sections

View
Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherShanghai, China

Rain is likely in Shanghai on Tuesday

8 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Shanghai Tue 8 a.m.–2 p.m. GMT+8.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 7:03 a.m. GMT+8 · times are Shanghai’s (GMT+8)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Shanghai this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (8 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.); Wednesday (8 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Thursday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Saturday (6 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.). Drier: Mon (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+8.
How much rain will Shanghai get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 2 a.m. GMT+8 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 23 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 8 a.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Shanghai?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 33 km/h, Thu 2 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Shanghai?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 18°C (Tues., Oct. 6, 2 a.m.) to 24°C (Wed 2 p.m.) GMT+8. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Shanghai?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Shanghai this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmTue 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmWed 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmThu 2–8 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmThu 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmSun 2–8 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.3 mmSun 2–8 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+8.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)8 in 10<1 in 101.2 mm · <1 in 1033 km/h22°C–23°C
Wed 308 in 101 in 103.7 mm · <1 in 1027 km/h22°C–24°C
Thu 1nearly all4 in 108.2 mm · 1 in 1033 km/h21°C–21°C
Fri 22 in 10<1 in 108.5 mm · 2 in 1025 km/h20°C–21°C
Sat 36 in 102 in 1012 mm · 4 in 1024 km/h20°C–21°C
Sun 48 in 105 in 1022 mm · 7 in 1028 km/h20°C–21°C
Mon 52 in 10<1 in 1023 mm · 7 in 1031 km/h19°C–23°C
Tue 6 (part)–––15 km/h18°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 8 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Shanghai

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Shanghai this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Shanghai’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

Other cities →