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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherSeoul, South Korea

Rain is likely in Seoul on Wednesday

8 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Seoul Wed 3–9 p.m. GMT+9.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 8:03 a.m. GMT+9 · times are Seoul’s (GMT+9)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Seoul this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Wednesday (8 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 p.m.); Sunday (4 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 p.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (5 in 10 forecasts, 9 p.m.–3 a.m.). Drier: Thu, Fri, Sat (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+9.
How much rain will Seoul get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 3 a.m. GMT+9 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 3.8 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 9 a.m. 1 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total.
How windy will it get in Seoul?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 32 km/h, Thu 3 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Seoul?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 14°C (Fri 3 a.m.) to 27°C (Tue 3 p.m.) GMT+9. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Seoul?
Sea of Japan low: 1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 kilometres, closest most likely Sun 9 p.m. GMT+9.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmWed 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmMon 3–9 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 3–9 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+9.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 108 km/h20°C–27°C
Wed 308 in 10<1 in 100.6 mm · <1 in 1030 km/h19°C–25°C
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 100.6 mm · <1 in 1032 km/h15°C–21°C
Fri 2<1 in 10<1 in 100.6 mm · <1 in 1024 km/h14°C–21°C
Sat 3<1 in 10<1 in 100.6 mm · <1 in 108 km/h14°C–22°C
Sun 44 in 102 in 101.1 mm · <1 in 1017 km/h16°C–21°C
Mon 55 in 102 in 103.3 mm · 1 in 1026 km/h16°C–21°C
Tue 6 (part)1 in 10<1 in 103.8 mm · 1 in 1020 km/h14°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 9 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Seoul

  • Sea of Japan low1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 km; closest most likely Sun 9 p.m. GMT+9.

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Seoul’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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