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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherSalt Lake City, UT

Rain is possible in Salt Lake City on Monday

4 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Salt Lake City Mon 6 p.m.–midnight MDT.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 5:03 p.m. MDT · times are Salt Lake City’s (MDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Salt Lake City this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (4 in 10 forecasts, 6 p.m.–midnight). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are MDT.
How much rain will Salt Lake City get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, noon MDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.02 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 6 p.m. Fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in in total.
How windy will it get in Salt Lake City?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 11 mph, Tue 6 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Salt Lake City?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 51°F (Wed 6 a.m.) to 76°F (Sun., Oct. 4, 6 p.m.) MDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Salt Lake City?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Salt Lake City this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 6 p.m.–midnight: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue midnight–6 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, MDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)4 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 107 mph64°F
Tue 291 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 1011 mph51°F–66°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 109 mph51°F–67°F
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 106 mph51°F–70°F
Fri 2<1 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 109 mph54°F–75°F
Sat 3<1 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 107 mph56°F–73°F
Sun 4<1 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 106 mph55°F–76°F
Mon 5 (part)<1 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 1011 mph59°F–75°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 6 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Salt Lake City

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Salt Lake City this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Salt Lake City’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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