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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherReykjavík, Iceland

Rain is likely in Reykjavík on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Reykjavík Tue 6 a.m.–noon GMT; 9 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 11:03 p.m. GMT · times are Reykjavík’s (GMT)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Reykjavík this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 6 a.m.–noon); Wednesday (nearly all forecasts, midnight–6 a.m.); Thursday (nearly all forecasts, 6 a.m.–noon); Friday (nearly all forecasts, 6 a.m.–noon). Times are GMT.
How much rain will Reykjavík get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 6 p.m. GMT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 80 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue midnight. 9 in 10 forecasts bring 51 mm or more in total.
How windy will it get in Reykjavík?
Gusts over 80 km/h: 2 in 10 forecasts at Thu 6 a.m. GMT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 61 km/h, Thu midnight. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Reykjavík?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 6°C (Tue 6 a.m.) to 11°C (Wed noon) GMT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Reykjavík?
North Atlantic low southeast of Greenland: 4 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 kilometres, closest most likely Thu 8 a.m. GMT. Irminger Sea low: 2 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 kilometres, closest most likely Sun., Oct. 4, 7 p.m. GMT.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue midnight–6 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmTue 6 a.m.–noon: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 7.1 mmTue noon–6 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.8 mmTue 6 p.m.–midnight: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 4.9 mmWed midnight–6 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.0 mmWed 6 a.m.–noon: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.1 mmWed noon–6 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.8 mmWed 6 p.m.–midnight: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmThu midnight–6 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.0 mmThu 6 a.m.–noon: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.8 mmThu noon–6 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.5 mmThu 6 p.m.–midnight: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.6 mmFri midnight–6 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.8 mmFri 6 a.m.–noon: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.4 mmFri noon–6 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.3 mmFri 6 p.m.–midnight: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.1 mmSat midnight–6 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmSat 6 a.m.–noon: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmSat noon–6 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.9 mmSat 6 p.m.–midnight: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.8 mmSun midnight–6 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.7 mmSun 6 a.m.–noon: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.4 mmSun noon–6 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.1 mmSun 6 p.m.–midnight: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.1 mmMon midnight–6 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmMon 6 a.m.–noon: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.1 mmMon noon–6 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.1 mm

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29nearly all9 in 1018 mm · 7 in 1051 km/h · 2 in 10 >64 km/h6°C–10°C
Wed 30nearly all5 in 1028 mm · 8 in 1053 km/h · 2 in 10 >64 km/h10°C–11°C
Thu 1nearly all7 in 1041 mm · nearly all61 km/h · 4 in 10 >64 km/h9°C–10°C
Fri 2nearly all3 in 1048 mm · nearly all43 km/h7°C–8°C
Sat 39 in 107 in 1065 mm · nearly all41 km/h7°C–9°C
Sun 49 in 104 in 1072 mm · nearly all35 km/h8°C–8°C
Mon 5 (part)9 in 102 in 1080 mm · nearly all39 km/h · 2 in 10 >64 km/h7°C–7°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue midnight, and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Reykjavík

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Reykjavík’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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