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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherProvidence, RI

Rain is likely in Providence on Sunday, Oct. 4

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Providence Sun 2–8 p.m. EDT; 5 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Providence’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Providence this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (6 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Sunday, Oct. 4 (7 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (5 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Providence get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.64 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 6 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Providence?
Gusts over 30 mph: 2 in 10 forecasts at Mon., Oct. 5, 2 a.m. EDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 24 mph, Sat 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Providence?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 52°F (Sun 2 a.m.) to 80°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Providence?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Providence this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inTue 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.09 inSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)6 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 1018 mph58°F
Tue 292 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 1017 mph56°F–67°F
Wed 301 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 109 mph58°F–72°F
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 1020 mph59°F–77°F
Fri 23 in 10<1 in 100.05 in · <1 in 1023 mph65°F–80°F
Sat 33 in 101 in 100.08 in · <1 in 1024 mph55°F–65°F
Sun 47 in 105 in 100.38 in · 5 in 1019 mph52°F–59°F
Mon 5 (part)5 in 103 in 100.64 in · 6 in 1020 mph57°F–64°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Providence

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Providence this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Providence’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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