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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherPrince Rupert, BC

Rain is likely in Prince Rupert on Monday

6 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Prince Rupert Mon 5–11 p.m. PDT.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 4:03 p.m. PDT · times are Prince Rupert’s (PDT)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Prince Rupert this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (6 in 10 forecasts, 5–11 p.m.); Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 11 a.m.–5 p.m.); Wednesday (nearly all forecasts, 11 p.m.–5 a.m.); Thursday (6 in 10 forecasts, 11 a.m.–5 p.m.). Times are PDT.
How much rain will Prince Rupert get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 11 a.m. PDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 1.4 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 5 p.m. 8 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more in total; 3 in 10 forecasts bring 2 in or more.
How windy will it get in Prince Rupert?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 13 mph, Tue 11 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Prince Rupert?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 43°F (Fri 5 a.m.) to 53°F (Sun., Oct. 4, 5 p.m.) PDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Prince Rupert?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Prince Rupert this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 5–11 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inMon 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inTue 5–11 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 inTue 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.08 inTue 5–11 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.08 inTue 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.13 inWed 5–11 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.10 inWed 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inWed 5–11 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inWed 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 5–11 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inThu 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inThu 5–11 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 5–11 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 5–11 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 5–11 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 5–11 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 5–11 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inSun 5–11 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 inSun 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.24 inMon 5–11 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.15 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, PDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)6 in 10<1 in 100.01 in · <1 in 105 mph45°F–51°F
Tue 29nearly all4 in 100.26 in · <1 in 1013 mph44°F–49°F
Wed 30nearly all6 in 100.58 in · 7 in 1012 mph46°F–51°F
Thu 16 in 101 in 100.65 in · 7 in 106 mph45°F–50°F
Fri 23 in 101 in 100.70 in · 8 in 106 mph43°F–50°F
Sat 33 in 10<1 in 100.71 in · 8 in 105 mph44°F–52°F
Sun 47 in 105 in 100.94 in · nearly all11 mph47°F–53°F
Mon 5 (part)8 in 107 in 101.4 in · nearly all11 mph50°F–51°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 5 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Prince Rupert

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Prince Rupert this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Prince Rupert’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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