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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherPortland, ME

Rain is likely in Portland on Monday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Portland Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m. EDT; nearly all bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Portland’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Portland this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (nearly all forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Friday (5 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Sunday, Oct. 4 (6 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.). Drier: Wed, Thu (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Portland get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 1.2 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 6 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more in total; 3 in 10 forecasts bring 2 in or more.
How windy will it get in Portland?
Gusts over 30 mph: 1 in 10 forecasts at Mon., Oct. 5, 2 a.m. EDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 21 mph, Tue 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Portland?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 50°F (Sun 2 a.m.) to 72°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Portland?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Portland this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.30 inTue 2–8 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.11 inTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inTue 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inMon 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)nearly allnearly all0.30 in · 1 in 1024 mph54°F
Tue 29nearly all6 in 100.47 in · 4 in 1021 mph55°F–60°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 100.47 in · 4 in 1011 mph56°F–66°F
Thu 11 in 10<1 in 100.47 in · 4 in 1018 mph57°F–71°F
Fri 25 in 102 in 100.52 in · 5 in 1019 mph64°F–72°F
Sat 32 in 101 in 100.58 in · 6 in 1019 mph54°F–62°F
Sun 46 in 105 in 100.96 in · 8 in 1017 mph50°F–55°F
Mon 5 (part)4 in 103 in 101.2 in · 9 in 1020 mph54°F–60°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Portland

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Portland this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Portland’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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