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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherPonta Delgada (Azores), Portugal

Rain is likely in Ponta Delgada on Tuesday

6 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Ponta Delgada Tue midnight–6 a.m. GMT+0.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 11:03 p.m. GMT+0 · times are Ponta Delgada’s (GMT+0)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Ponta Delgada this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (6 in 10 forecasts, midnight–6 a.m.); Thursday (5 in 10 forecasts, 6 p.m.–midnight); Friday (7 in 10 forecasts, noon–6 p.m.); Saturday (7 in 10 forecasts, midnight–6 a.m.). Drier: Wed (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+0.
How much rain will Ponta Delgada get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 6 p.m. GMT+0 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 11 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue midnight. 5 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Ponta Delgada?
Gusts over 48 km/h: 1 in 10 forecasts at Sat midnight GMT+0. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 45 km/h, Tue 6 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Ponta Delgada?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 19°C (Tue noon) to 21°C (Fri 6 p.m.) GMT+0. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Ponta Delgada?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Ponta Delgada this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue midnight–6 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmTue 6 a.m.–noon: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmTue noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 6 p.m.–midnight: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed midnight–6 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed noon–6 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 a.m.–noon: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu noon–6 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 p.m.–midnight: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri midnight–6 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmFri 6 a.m.–noon: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmFri noon–6 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.3 mmFri 6 p.m.–midnight: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmSat midnight–6 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.0 mmSat 6 a.m.–noon: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmSat noon–6 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSat 6 p.m.–midnight: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun midnight–6 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 a.m.–noon: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun noon–6 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 p.m.–midnight: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon midnight–6 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 6 a.m.–noon: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon noon–6 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+0.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 296 in 10<1 in 100.8 mm · <1 in 1045 km/h19°C–21°C
Wed 301 in 10<1 in 101.2 mm · <1 in 1024 km/h20°C–20°C
Thu 15 in 102 in 101.6 mm · 1 in 1022 km/h20°C–21°C
Fri 27 in 103 in 105.2 mm · 3 in 1035 km/h21°C–21°C
Sat 37 in 104 in 109.1 mm · 5 in 1033 km/h21°C–21°C
Sun 44 in 101 in 1011 mm · 5 in 1029 km/h21°C–21°C
Mon 5 (part)4 in 101 in 1011 mm · 5 in 1024 km/h21°C–21°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue midnight, and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Ponta Delgada

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Ponta Delgada this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Ponta Delgada’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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