StormlinesStorm tracks, explained
Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

Sections

View
Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherPetropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia

Rain is likely in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky Tue 6 p.m.–midnight GMT+12; nearly all bring 2.5 mm or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 11:03 a.m. GMT+12 · times are Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky’s (GMT+12)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 6 p.m.–midnight); Wednesday (nearly all forecasts, midnight–6 a.m.); Thursday (9 in 10 forecasts, noon–6 p.m.); Friday (nearly all forecasts, noon–6 p.m.). Drier: Sun, Mon (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+12.
How much rain will Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 6 a.m. GMT+12 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 84 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue noon. Nearly all forecasts bring 51 mm or more in total; 3 in 10 forecasts bring 102 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky?
Gusts over 48 km/h: 5 in 10 forecasts at Sat midnight GMT+12. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 46 km/h, Sat midnight. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 4°C (Mon., Oct. 5, 6 a.m.) to 8°C (Tue noon) GMT+12. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky?
Sea of Japan low: 1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 kilometres, closest most likely Sat 8 a.m. GMT+12. North Pacific low off Kamchatka: 1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 kilometres, closest most likely Sat 9 a.m. GMT+12.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue noon–6 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.0 mmTue 6 p.m.–midnight: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 13 mmWed midnight–6 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 11 mmWed 6 a.m.–noon: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 6.9 mmWed noon–6 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.1 mmWed 6 p.m.–midnight: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmThu midnight–6 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 6 a.m.–noon: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.8 mmThu noon–6 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmThu 6 p.m.–midnight: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri midnight–6 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 6 a.m.–noon: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmFri noon–6 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.9 mmFri 6 p.m.–midnight: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 12 mmSat midnight–6 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 15 mmSat 6 a.m.–noon: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 5.2 mmSat noon–6 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmSat 6 p.m.–midnight: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun midnight–6 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun noon–6 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 6 p.m.–midnight: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 6 a.m.–noon: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon noon–6 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 6 p.m.–midnight: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue midnight–6 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+12.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)nearly allnearly all14 mm · 6 in 1028 km/h8°C–8°C
Wed 30nearly allnearly all35 mm · nearly all40 km/h7°C–8°C
Thu 19 in 102 in 1040 mm · nearly all17 km/h7°C–7°C
Fri 2nearly all9 in 1057 mm · nearly all40 km/h6°C–8°C
Sat 3nearly allnearly all84 mm · nearly all46 km/h5°C–6°C
Sun 41 in 10<1 in 1084 mm · nearly all42 km/h5°C–8°C
Mon 5<1 in 10<1 in 1084 mm · nearly all32 km/h4°C–8°C
Tue 6 (part)<1 in 10<1 in 1084 mm · nearly all25 km/h4°C–4°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue noon, and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

Other cities →