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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherPensacola, FL

Rain is likely in Pensacola on Thursday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Pensacola Thu 7 a.m.–1 p.m. CDT; 2 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 6:03 p.m. CDT · times are Pensacola’s (CDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Pensacola this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Wednesday (4 in 10 forecasts, 1–7 p.m.); Thursday (9 in 10 forecasts, 7 a.m.–1 p.m.); Friday (nearly all forecasts, 7 a.m.–1 p.m.); Saturday (9 in 10 forecasts, 1–7 p.m.). Drier: Tue (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are CDT.
How much rain will Pensacola get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 1 p.m. CDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 1.6 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 7 p.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 2 in or more.
How windy will it get in Pensacola?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 17 mph, Sat 1 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Pensacola?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 71°F (Tue 7 a.m.) to 86°F (Tue 1 p.m.) CDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Pensacola?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Pensacola this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 1–7 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 1–7 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 1–7 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 1–7 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inThu 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 inThu 1–7 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inThu 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 1–7 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inFri 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.11 inFri 1–7 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inFri 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSat 1–7 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inSat 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.11 inSat 1–7 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inSat 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 1–7 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inSun 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inSun 1–7 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.13 inSun 7 p.m.–1 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inMon 1–7 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inMon 7 a.m.–1 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, CDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)3 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 104 mph79°F
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 109 mph71°F–86°F
Wed 304 in 10<1 in 100.03 in · <1 in 1013 mph74°F–85°F
Thu 19 in 102 in 100.15 in · <1 in 1015 mph77°F–85°F
Fri 2nearly all5 in 100.53 in · 6 in 1016 mph78°F–84°F
Sat 39 in 105 in 100.99 in · 8 in 1017 mph78°F–85°F
Sun 49 in 106 in 101.5 in · 9 in 1014 mph78°F–84°F
Mon 5 (part)8 in 104 in 101.6 in · 9 in 1014 mph75°F–79°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 7 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Pensacola

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Pensacola this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Pensacola’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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