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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherOcean City, MD

Rain is likely in Ocean City on Sunday, Oct. 4

6 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Ocean City Sun 8 p.m.–2 a.m. EDT; 3 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Ocean City’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Ocean City this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Sunday, Oct. 4 (6 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (7 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Ocean City get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.52 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 5 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 2 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Ocean City?
Gusts over 30 mph: 2 in 10 forecasts at Fri 2 a.m. EDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 26 mph, Fri 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Ocean City?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 63°F (Tue 8 a.m.) to 76°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Ocean City?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Ocean City this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inMon 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 inMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 107 mph65°F
Tue 291 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1011 mph63°F–69°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1015 mph65°F–72°F
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1020 mph67°F–74°F
Fri 22 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1026 mph68°F–76°F
Sat 33 in 101 in 100.03 in · <1 in 1023 mph66°F–70°F
Sun 46 in 103 in 100.16 in · 3 in 1021 mph67°F–69°F
Mon 5 (part)7 in 104 in 100.52 in · 5 in 1015 mph65°F–68°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Ocean City

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Ocean City this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Ocean City’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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