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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherNuuk, Greenland

Rain is likely in Nuuk on Friday

8 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Nuuk Fri 5–11 p.m. GMT-1; 5 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 10:03 p.m. GMT-1 · times are Nuuk’s (GMT-1)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Nuuk this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Friday (8 in 10 forecasts, 5–11 p.m.); Saturday (9 in 10 forecasts, 5–11 a.m.); Sunday (8 in 10 forecasts, 5–11 a.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (8 in 10 forecasts, 5–11 a.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT-1.
How much rain will Nuuk get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 5 p.m. GMT-1 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 23 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 11 p.m. 8 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more.
Will it snow in Nuuk?
Possibly. The best chance is Sun 5–11 a.m. GMT-1, when 6 in 10 forecasts bring snow (at least 1 mm of melted snow in six hours, very roughly 1 cm of snow). A coarse global model is least reliable about snow: check your local forecast.
How windy will it get in Nuuk?
Gusts over 48 km/h: 3 in 10 forecasts at Sat 11 a.m. GMT-1. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 38 km/h, Sat 11 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Nuuk?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 0°C (Thu 5 a.m.) to 4°C (Fri 5 p.m.) GMT-1. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Nuuk?
Davis Strait low: 2 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 kilometres, closest most likely Sat 5 p.m. GMT-1. Davis Strait low: 1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 kilometres, closest most likely Wed 3 a.m. GMT-1. Davis Strait low: 1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 kilometres, closest most likely Sun., Oct. 4, 2 p.m. GMT-1.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 5–11 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 5–11 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 5–11 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 5–11 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 5–11 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 5–11 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 5–11 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmFri 5–11 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.4 mmFri 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.1 mmSat 5–11 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.8 mmSat 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.7 mmSat 5–11 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.3 mmSat 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmSun 5–11 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmSun 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmSun 5–11 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmSun 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmMon 5–11 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmMon 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mm

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT-1.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreChance of snowTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)––––15 km/h1°C
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1021 km/h0°C–2°C
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1017 km/h0°C–2°C
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1016 km/h0°C–3°C
Fri 28 in 105 in 10<1 in 105.9 mm · 1 in 1026 km/h · 1 in 10 >64 km/h2°C–4°C
Sat 39 in 104 in 103 in 1014 mm · 6 in 1038 km/h · 1 in 10 >64 km/h2°C–3°C
Sun 48 in 102 in 106 in 1019 mm · 7 in 1020 km/h1°C–2°C
Mon 5 (part)8 in 102 in 105 in 1023 mm · 8 in 1021 km/h0°C–1°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 11 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Nuuk

  • Davis Strait low2 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 km; closest most likely Sat 5 p.m. GMT-1.
  • Davis Strait low1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 km; closest most likely Wed 3 a.m. GMT-1.
  • Davis Strait low1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 km; closest most likely Sun., Oct. 4, 2 p.m. GMT-1.

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Nuuk’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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