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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherNome, AK

Snow or rain is possible in Nome on Sunday, Oct. 4

3 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable snow or rain to Nome Sun 10 a.m.–4 p.m. AKDT; 1 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more Sun 4–10 a.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 3:03 p.m. AKDT · times are Nome’s (AKDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Nome this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Sunday, Oct. 4 (3 in 10 forecasts, 10 a.m.–4 p.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are AKDT.
How much rain will Nome get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 10 a.m. AKDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has almost no rain or melted snow, counting from Mon 4 p.m. Fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in in total.
Will it snow in Nome?
Possibly. The best chance is Sun 10 a.m.–4 p.m. AKDT, when 1 in 10 forecasts bring snow (at least 1 mm of melted snow in six hours, very roughly half an inch of snow). A coarse global model is least reliable about snow: check your local forecast.
How windy will it get in Nome?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 17 mph, Sun., Oct. 4, 10 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Nome?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 26°F (Thu 10 a.m.) to 37°F (Wed 4 p.m.) AKDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Nome?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Nome this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 4–10 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 4–10 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 4–10 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, AKDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreChance of snowTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1021 mph32°F–41°F
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1011 mph30°F–36°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1013 mph28°F–37°F
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1010 mph26°F–33°F
Fri 2<1 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 106 mph26°F–33°F
Sat 31 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1013 mph28°F–35°F
Sun 43 in 101 in 101 in 10almost none · <1 in 1017 mph28°F–35°F
Mon 5 (part)2 in 10<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1011 mph29°F–31°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 4 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Nome

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Nome this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Nome’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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