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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherNew Haven, CT

Rain is likely in New Haven on Sunday, Oct. 4

6 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to New Haven Sun 8 a.m.–2 p.m. EDT; 5 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more Sun 2–8 p.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are New Haven’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in New Haven this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Friday (4 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Sunday, Oct. 4 (6 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (5 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
How much rain will New Haven get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.63 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 5 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 3 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in New Haven?
Gusts over 30 mph: 2 in 10 forecasts at Mon., Oct. 5, 2 a.m. EDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 20 mph, Sat 8 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in New Haven?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 54°F (Sun 8 a.m.) to 79°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for New Haven?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of New Haven this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inSun 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inMon 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1017 mph57°F
Tue 291 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 109 mph56°F–69°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 106 mph58°F–72°F
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1015 mph62°F–76°F
Fri 24 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 1020 mph66°F–79°F
Sat 33 in 101 in 100.06 in · <1 in 1020 mph59°F–67°F
Sun 46 in 105 in 100.44 in · 5 in 1019 mph54°F–59°F
Mon 5 (part)5 in 103 in 100.63 in · 5 in 1014 mph57°F–63°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near New Haven

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near New Haven this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at New Haven’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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