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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherNaha (Okinawa), Japan

Rain is likely in Naha on Wednesday

8 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Naha Wed 3–9 a.m. GMT+9; 2 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more Wed 9 a.m.–3 p.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 8:03 a.m. GMT+9 · times are Naha’s (GMT+9)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Naha this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Wednesday (8 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 a.m.); Saturday (6 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 p.m.); Sunday (6 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 a.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (7 in 10 forecasts, 9 a.m.–3 p.m.). Drier: Thu (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+9.
How much rain will Naha get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 3 a.m. GMT+9 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 11 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 9 a.m. 5 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total; 1 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Naha?
Gusts over 48 km/h: 1 in 10 forecasts at Mon., Oct. 5, 9 p.m. GMT+9. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 36 km/h, Mon., Oct. 5, 9 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Naha?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 26°C (Tues., Oct. 6, 3 a.m.) to 28°C (Tue 3 p.m.) GMT+9. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Naha?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Naha this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 3–9 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmWed 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.1 mmWed 3–9 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 3–9 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSat 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSat 3–9 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSat 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSun 3–9 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSun 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 3–9 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmMon 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmMon 3–9 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mm

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+9.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1026 km/h28°C–28°C
Wed 308 in 102 in 102.5 mm · <1 in 1017 km/h28°C–28°C
Thu 11 in 10<1 in 102.7 mm · <1 in 1027 km/h27°C–28°C
Fri 23 in 101 in 103.6 mm · <1 in 1033 km/h27°C–27°C
Sat 36 in 102 in 106.5 mm · 1 in 1029 km/h27°C–27°C
Sun 46 in 101 in 108.6 mm · 3 in 1022 km/h27°C–27°C
Mon 57 in 102 in 1011 mm · 5 in 1036 km/h27°C–27°C
Tue 6 (part)6 in 10<1 in 1011 mm · 5 in 1032 km/h26°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 9 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Naha

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Naha this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Naha’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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