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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherNags Head, NC

Rain is likely in Nags Head on Monday, Oct. 5

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Nags Head Mon 8 a.m.–2 p.m. EDT; 4 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Nags Head’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Nags Head this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Sunday, Oct. 4 (4 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (7 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Nags Head get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.27 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 2 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total.
How windy will it get in Nags Head?
Gusts over 30 mph: 1 in 10 forecasts at Sat 8 a.m. EDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 21 mph, Sun., Oct. 4, 8 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Nags Head?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 70°F (Tue 2 a.m.) to 74°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Nags Head?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Nags Head this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 109 mph70°F
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1010 mph70°F–71°F
Wed 301 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1013 mph71°F–73°F
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1018 mph71°F–74°F
Fri 2<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1018 mph71°F–74°F
Sat 32 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1017 mph71°F–74°F
Sun 44 in 102 in 100.04 in · 1 in 1021 mph72°F–74°F
Mon 5 (part)7 in 104 in 100.27 in · 2 in 1019 mph70°F–72°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Nags Head

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Nags Head this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Nags Head’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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