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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherMontevideo, Uruguay

Rain is likely in Montevideo on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Montevideo Tue 3–9 a.m. GMT-3; 7 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more Tue 9 a.m.–3 p.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 8:03 p.m. GMT-3 · times are Montevideo’s (GMT-3)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Montevideo this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 3–9 a.m.); Saturday (8 in 10 forecasts, 9 a.m.–3 p.m.). Drier: Wed, Thu, Fri, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT-3.
How much rain will Montevideo get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 3 p.m. GMT-3 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 20 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 9 p.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Montevideo?
Gusts over 48 km/h: 8 in 10 forecasts at Tue 9 p.m. GMT-3. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 53 km/h, Tue 9 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Montevideo?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 10°C (Fri 3 a.m.) to 17°C (Mon., Oct. 5, 3 p.m.) GMT-3. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Montevideo?
South Atlantic low southeast of Uruguay: 1 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 160 kilometres, closest most likely Tue 3 p.m. GMT-3.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmTue 3–9 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.8 mmTue 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 4.2 mmTue 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 3–9 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmSat 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmSat 3–9 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 3–9 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT-3.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)–––34 km/h16°C
Tue 29nearly all7 in 108.2 mm · 2 in 1053 km/h14°C–16°C
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 108.2 mm · 2 in 1045 km/h12°C–13°C
Thu 12 in 10<1 in 1010 mm · 2 in 1033 km/h11°C–12°C
Fri 2<1 in 10<1 in 1010 mm · 2 in 1038 km/h10°C–14°C
Sat 38 in 104 in 1020 mm · 7 in 1042 km/h12°C–14°C
Sun 41 in 10<1 in 1020 mm · 7 in 1022 km/h13°C–16°C
Mon 5 (part)1 in 10<1 in 1020 mm · 7 in 1018 km/h14°C–17°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 9 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Montevideo

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Montevideo’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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