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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherMontauk, NY

Rain is likely in Montauk on Sunday, Oct. 4

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Montauk Sun 2–8 p.m. EDT; 4 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more Sun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Montauk’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Montauk this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Sunday, Oct. 4 (7 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (5 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu, Sat (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Montauk get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.59 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 5 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
How windy will it get in Montauk?
Gusts over 30 mph: 3 in 10 forecasts at Mon., Oct. 5, 2 a.m. EDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 27 mph, Sat 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Montauk?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 60°F (Tue 2 a.m.) to 68°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Montauk?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Montauk this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 2–8 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inMon 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1017 mph60°F
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1015 mph60°F–65°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1012 mph62°F–65°F
Thu 1<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1021 mph65°F–67°F
Fri 23 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 1027 mph67°F–68°F
Sat 32 in 101 in 100.03 in · <1 in 1027 mph61°F–66°F
Sun 47 in 104 in 100.32 in · 4 in 1021 mph60°F–62°F
Mon 5 (part)5 in 103 in 100.59 in · 5 in 1021 mph · 2 in 10 >40 mph62°F–63°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Montauk

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Montauk this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Montauk’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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