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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherMiami, FL

Rain is likely in Miami on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Miami Tue 2–8 p.m. EDT; 6 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Miami’s (EDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Miami this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Wednesday (9 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Thursday (9 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Friday (8 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.). Times are EDT.
How much rain will Miami get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 1.5 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more in total; 2 in 10 forecasts bring 2 in or more.
How windy will it get in Miami?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 21 mph, Fri 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Miami?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 78°F (Tue 8 p.m.) to 86°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Miami?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Miami this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.09 inTue 2–8 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.11 inTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inWed 2–8 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.09 inWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inWed 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inThu 2–8 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.12 inThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inThu 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inFri 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inFri 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSat 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSat 2–8 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 2–8 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inMon 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1010 mph82°F
Tue 29nearly all6 in 100.32 in · 3 in 109 mph78°F–82°F
Wed 309 in 105 in 100.70 in · 7 in 1014 mph79°F–84°F
Thu 19 in 106 in 101.1 in · 9 in 1019 mph82°F–85°F
Fri 28 in 102 in 101.2 in · nearly all21 mph83°F–86°F
Sat 37 in 10<1 in 101.3 in · nearly all20 mph83°F–86°F
Sun 47 in 101 in 101.4 in · nearly all18 mph82°F–86°F
Mon 5 (part)7 in 101 in 101.5 in · nearly all15 mph82°F–86°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Miami

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Miami this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Miami’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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