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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherMelbourne, Australia

Rain is likely in Melbourne on Wednesday

8 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Melbourne Wed 4–10 p.m. GMT+10; 2 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 9:03 a.m. GMT+10 · times are Melbourne’s (GMT+10)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Melbourne this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Wednesday (8 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 p.m.); Thursday (nearly all forecasts, 4–10 p.m.); Friday (9 in 10 forecasts, 10 p.m.–4 a.m.). Drier: Sat, Sun, Mon (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+10.
How much rain will Melbourne get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 5 a.m. GMT+11 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 22 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 10 a.m. 9 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Melbourne?
Gusts over 48 km/h: 9 in 10 forecasts at Wed 4 a.m. GMT+10. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 56 km/h, Wed 4 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Melbourne?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 7°C (Sat 4 a.m.) to 21°C (Wed 4 p.m.) GMT+10. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Melbourne?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Melbourne this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.0 mmWed 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmThu 4–10 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmThu 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 4.0 mmThu 4–10 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 5.8 mmThu 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.9 mmFri 4–10 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmFri 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 5–11 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 5–11 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 5–11 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 5–11 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+10.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1046 km/h17°C–21°C
Wed 308 in 102 in 101.0 mm · <1 in 1056 km/h · 1 in 10 >64 km/h17°C–21°C
Thu 1nearly all8 in 1016 mm · 6 in 1035 km/h12°C–18°C
Fri 29 in 105 in 1021 mm · 9 in 1031 km/h9°C–12°C
Sat 31 in 10<1 in 1021 mm · 9 in 1029 km/h7°C–16°C
Sun 4<1 in 10<1 in 1021 mm · 9 in 1016 km/h8°C–17°C
Mon 51 in 10<1 in 1022 mm · 9 in 1011 km/h9°C–17°C
Tue 6 (part)<1 in 10<1 in 1022 mm · 9 in 1013 km/h12°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 10 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Melbourne

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Melbourne this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Melbourne’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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