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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherManila, Philippines

Rain is likely in Manila on Tuesday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Manila Tue 8 a.m.–2 p.m. GMT+8; 5 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more Tue 2–8 p.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 7:03 a.m. GMT+8 · times are Manila’s (GMT+8)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Manila this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.); Wednesday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Thursday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Friday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 p.m.). Times are GMT+8.
How much rain will Manila get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 2 a.m. GMT+8 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 55 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 8 a.m. 6 in 10 forecasts bring 51 mm or more in total.
How windy will it get in Manila?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 13 km/h, Mon., Oct. 5, 8 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Manila?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 26°C (Sat 2 a.m.) to 31°C (Wed 2 p.m.) GMT+8. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Manila?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Manila this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.7 mmTue 2–8 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.2 mmTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmWed 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmWed 2–8 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.3 mmWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 2–8 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.1 mmThu 2–8 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 4.0 mmThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmFri 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.9 mmFri 2–8 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 7.8 mmFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.9 mmSat 2–8 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.3 mmSat 2–8 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.7 mmSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmSun 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.4 mmSun 2–8 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.2 mmSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.6 mmMon 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmMon 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 5.0 mmMon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.4 mm

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+8.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)nearly all5 in 105.5 mm · <1 in 109 km/h27°C–31°C
Wed 30nearly all5 in 108.8 mm · 3 in 108 km/h26°C–31°C
Thu 1nearly all7 in 1018 mm · 7 in 109 km/h26°C–31°C
Fri 2nearly all7 in 1034 mm · 9 in 109 km/h26°C–30°C
Sat 3nearly all4 in 1038 mm · nearly all10 km/h26°C–30°C
Sun 4nearly all5 in 1042 mm · nearly all12 km/h26°C–30°C
Mon 59 in 107 in 1055 mm · nearly all13 km/h26°C–31°C
Tue 6 (part)–––8 km/h26°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 8 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Manila

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Manila this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Manila’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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