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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherKodiak, AK

Rain is likely in Kodiak on Wednesday

8 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Kodiak Wed 4–10 a.m. AKDT.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 3:03 p.m. AKDT · times are Kodiak’s (AKDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Kodiak this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (5 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 p.m.); Wednesday (8 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 a.m.); Thursday (3 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 p.m.); Friday (8 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 p.m.). Times are AKDT.
How much rain will Kodiak get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 10 a.m. AKDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 1.2 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 4 p.m. 6 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more in total; 2 in 10 forecasts bring 2 in or more.
How windy will it get in Kodiak?
Gusts over 30 mph: 4 in 10 forecasts at Fri 10 p.m. AKDT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 27 mph, Fri 10 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Kodiak?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 40°F (Fri 4 a.m.) to 52°F (Mon 4 p.m.) AKDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Kodiak?
North Pacific low east of the Aleutians: 2 in 10 forecasts bring its centre within 100 miles, closest most likely Sat 10 p.m. AKDT.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 4–10 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inWed 4–10 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inWed 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 4–10 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 4–10 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inFri 4–10 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.08 inFri 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.12 inSat 4–10 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inSat 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSat 4–10 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inSat 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 4–10 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSun 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSun 4–10 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 inSun 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 4–10 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, AKDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)5 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1015 mph46°F–52°F
Tue 293 in 10<1 in 100.02 in · <1 in 1013 mph45°F–49°F
Wed 308 in 10<1 in 100.07 in · <1 in 1012 mph42°F–46°F
Thu 13 in 10<1 in 100.11 in · <1 in 107 mph41°F–44°F
Fri 28 in 105 in 100.35 in · 4 in 1027 mph40°F–46°F
Sat 38 in 105 in 100.98 in · 7 in 1019 mph47°F–48°F
Sun 47 in 103 in 101.1 in · 7 in 1010 mph46°F–48°F
Mon 5 (part)3 in 10<1 in 101.2 in · 7 in 1012 mph44°F–45°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 4 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Kodiak

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Kodiak’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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