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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherJuneau, AK

Rain is likely in Juneau on Monday

Nearly all of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Juneau Mon 4–10 p.m. AKDT; 8 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 3:03 p.m. AKDT · times are Juneau’s (AKDT)

See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast

Quick answers

Will it rain in Juneau this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (nearly all forecasts, 4–10 p.m.); Tuesday (nearly all forecasts, 10 p.m.–4 a.m.); Wednesday (nearly all forecasts, 10 a.m.–4 p.m.); Thursday (nearly all forecasts, 10 p.m.–4 a.m.). Times are AKDT.
How much rain will Juneau get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 10 a.m. AKDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 4.1 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 4 p.m. 6 in 10 forecasts bring 4 in or more in total.
Will it snow in Juneau?
Possibly. The best chance is Sat 4–10 p.m. AKDT, when 1 in 10 forecasts bring snow (at least 1 mm of melted snow in six hours, very roughly half an inch of snow). A coarse global model is least reliable about snow: check your local forecast.
How windy will it get in Juneau?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 13 mph, Thu 4 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Juneau?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 37°F (Fri 4 a.m.) to 43°F (Wed 4 p.m.) AKDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Juneau?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Juneau this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 4–10 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.15 inMon 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.16 inTue 4–10 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.17 inTue 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inTue 4–10 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inTue 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.05 inWed 4–10 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inWed 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.09 inWed 4–10 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.15 inWed 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.28 inThu 4–10 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.21 inThu 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.10 inThu 4–10 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inThu 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inFri 4–10 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inFri 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.07 inFri 4–10 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.06 inFri 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSat 4–10 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inSat 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.02 inSat 4–10 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.10 inSat 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.26 inSun 4–10 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.29 inSun 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.28 inSun 4–10 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.25 inSun 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.20 inMon 4–10 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.27 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, AKDT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreChance of snowTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)nearly all8 in 10<1 in 100.15 in · <1 in 109 mph39°F–40°F
Tue 29nearly all9 in 10<1 in 100.67 in · 9 in 107 mph39°F–41°F
Wed 30nearly all9 in 10<1 in 101.0 in · nearly all10 mph39°F–43°F
Thu 1nearly allnearly all1 in 101.8 in · nearly all13 mph37°F–40°F
Fri 29 in 105 in 10<1 in 102.1 in · nearly all9 mph37°F–40°F
Sat 37 in 105 in 101 in 102.6 in · nearly all7 mph38°F–41°F
Sun 49 in 108 in 10<1 in 103.7 in · nearly all8 mph39°F–43°F
Mon 5 (part)nearly all8 in 10<1 in 104.1 in · nearly all9 mph41°F–42°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 4 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Juneau

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Juneau this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Juneau’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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