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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherHong Kong, Hong Kong

Rain is likely in Hong Kong on Tuesday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Hong Kong Tue 2–8 p.m. GMT+8.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 7:03 a.m. GMT+8 · times are Hong Kong’s (GMT+8)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Hong Kong this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Tuesday (9 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Wednesday (nearly all forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Thursday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 a.m.); Friday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 a.m.). Times are GMT+8.
How much rain will Hong Kong get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 2 a.m. GMT+8 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 40 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 8 a.m. 8 in 10 forecasts bring 25 mm or more in total; 3 in 10 forecasts bring 51 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Hong Kong?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 32 km/h, Sat 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Hong Kong?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 26°C (Tues., Oct. 6, 2 a.m.) to 31°C (Wed 2 p.m.) GMT+8. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Hong Kong?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Hong Kong this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.5 mmWed 2–8 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.7 mmWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmWed 2–8 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.0 mmThu 2–8 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.1 mmThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmThu 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.1 mmFri 2–8 a.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 4.3 mmFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmFri 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmSat 2–8 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.0 mmSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmSun 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.3 mmSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.0 mmMon 2–8 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.7 mmMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmMon 2–8 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+8.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)9 in 101 in 102.7 mm · <1 in 1024 km/h29°C–31°C
Wed 30nearly all3 in 107.3 mm · <1 in 1021 km/h29°C–31°C
Thu 1nearly all7 in 1017 mm · 7 in 1018 km/h29°C–31°C
Fri 2nearly all7 in 1025 mm · 8 in 1027 km/h28°C–29°C
Sat 38 in 102 in 1027 mm · 9 in 1032 km/h27°C–29°C
Sun 49 in 106 in 1035 mm · nearly all21 km/h27°C–29°C
Mon 58 in 104 in 1040 mm · nearly all24 km/h27°C–28°C
Tue 6 (part)–––20 km/h26°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 8 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Hong Kong

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Hong Kong this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Hong Kong’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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