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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherHobart, Australia

Rain is likely in Hobart on Wednesday

7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Hobart Wed 4–10 a.m. GMT+10.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Tues., Sept. 29, 9:03 a.m. GMT+10 · times are Hobart’s (GMT+10)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Hobart this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Wednesday (7 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 a.m.); Thursday (7 in 10 forecasts, 4–10 p.m.); Friday (3 in 10 forecasts, 10 p.m.–4 a.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (4 in 10 forecasts, 11 a.m.–5 p.m.). Drier: Sat, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are GMT+10.
How much rain will Hobart get this week?
By Tues., Oct. 6, 5 a.m. GMT+11 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 5.9 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Tue 10 a.m. Fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts bring 13 mm in total.
How windy will it get in Hobart?
Gusts over 48 km/h: 7 in 10 forecasts at Wed 10 a.m. GMT+10. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 49 km/h, Wed 10 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Hobart?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 4°C (Sat 4 a.m.) to 17°C (Wed 10 a.m.) GMT+10. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Hobart?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Hobart this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Tue 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmWed 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 4–10 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmWed 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 4–10 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 4–10 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmThu 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 10 p.m.–4 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 a.m.–4 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 4–10 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 10 p.m.–5 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 5–11 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 5–11 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 5–11 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 11 a.m.–5 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 5–11 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 11 p.m.–5 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT+10.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Tue 29 (rest of day)<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1035 km/h12°C–16°C
Wed 307 in 10<1 in 101.6 mm · <1 in 1049 km/h12°C–17°C
Thu 17 in 101 in 103.0 mm · <1 in 1038 km/h10°C–15°C
Fri 23 in 10<1 in 104.2 mm · <1 in 1031 km/h6°C–10°C
Sat 3<1 in 10<1 in 104.2 mm · <1 in 1014 km/h4°C–11°C
Sun 41 in 101 in 104.3 mm · <1 in 1018 km/h5°C–12°C
Mon 54 in 101 in 105.6 mm · 1 in 1016 km/h6°C–13°C
Tue 6 (part)1 in 10<1 in 105.9 mm · 1 in 1013 km/h8°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Tue 10 a.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Hobart

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Hobart this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Hobart’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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