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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherHavana, Cuba

Rain is likely in Havana on Tuesday

9 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Havana Tue 8 a.m.–2 p.m. GMT-4; 7 in 10 bring 2.5 mm or more.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. GMT-4 · times are Havana’s (GMT-4)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Havana this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Monday (6 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Tuesday (9 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.); Wednesday (9 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Thursday (nearly all forecasts, 2–8 p.m.). Times are GMT-4.
How much rain will Havana get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. GMT-4 (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 45 mm of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. Nearly all forecasts bring 25 mm or more in total; 3 in 10 forecasts bring 51 mm or more.
How windy will it get in Havana?
No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 48 km/h at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 36 km/h, Sun 2 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Havana?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 24°C (Wed 8 a.m.) to 31°C (Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m.) GMT-4. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Havana?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 160 kilometres of Havana this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmTue 2–8 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.8 mmTue 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 4.0 mmTue 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.2 mmTue 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.1 mmWed 2–8 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.6 mmWed 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.9 mmWed 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 3.3 mmWed 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.6 mmThu 2–8 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmThu 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.2 mmThu 2–8 p.m.: nearly all forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 2.8 mmThu 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.9 mmFri 2–8 a.m.: 6 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.3 mmFri 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 2–8 p.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.6 mmFri 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.5 mmSat 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.7 mmSat 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.7 mmSun 2–8 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 2–8 p.m.: 9 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 1.8 mmSun 8 p.m.–2 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.4 mmMon 2–8 a.m.: 4 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 8 a.m.–2 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost none

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, GMT-4.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rain2.5 mm or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)6 in 101 in 100.5 mm · <1 in 1010 km/h25°C
Tue 299 in 107 in 1013 mm · 5 in 1020 km/h25°C–29°C
Wed 309 in 107 in 1028 mm · nearly all28 km/h24°C–29°C
Thu 1nearly all6 in 1034 mm · nearly all32 km/h24°C–30°C
Fri 28 in 104 in 1038 mm · nearly all30 km/h25°C–31°C
Sat 39 in 105 in 1040 mm · nearly all36 km/h25°C–31°C
Sun 49 in 104 in 1045 mm · nearly all36 km/h25°C–31°C
Mon 5 (part)4 in 10<1 in 1045 mm · nearly all27 km/h25°C–31°C

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 13 mm or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Havana

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Havana this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Havana’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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