This week’s weatherHarrisburg, PA
Rain is likely in Harrisburg on Sunday, Oct. 4
7 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Harrisburg Sun 8 a.m.–2 p.m. EDT; 5 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more.
NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 7:03 p.m. EDT · times are Harrisburg’s (EDT)
See it on the globe Official National Weather Service forecast
Quick answers
- Will it rain in Harrisburg this week?
- The best chances of measurable rain: Friday (4 in 10 forecasts, 2–8 p.m.); Saturday (5 in 10 forecasts, 8 p.m.–2 a.m.); Sunday, Oct. 4 (7 in 10 forecasts, 8 a.m.–2 p.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are EDT.
- How much rain will Harrisburg get this week?
- By Mon., Oct. 5, 2 p.m. EDT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.92 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 8 p.m. 7 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total; 4 in 10 forecasts bring 1 in or more.
- How windy will it get in Harrisburg?
- No strong gusts: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts have gusts over 30 mph at any of the six-hourly times. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 23 mph, Mon., Oct. 5, 8 a.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
- How warm or cold will it be in Harrisburg?
- At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 55°F (Mon., Oct. 5, 8 a.m.) to 84°F (Fri 2 p.m.) EDT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
- Are any storms heading for Harrisburg?
- No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Harrisburg this week.
Chance of rain, six hours at a time
Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, EDT.
The week, day by day
| Day | Chance of rain | A tenth of an inch or more | Total by day’s end | Strongest gust | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 28 (rest of day) | <1 in 10 | <1 in 10 | almost none · <1 in 10 | 8 mph | 60°F |
| Tue 29 | 1 in 10 | <1 in 10 | almost none · <1 in 10 | 7 mph | 58°F–71°F |
| Wed 30 | <1 in 10 | <1 in 10 | almost none · <1 in 10 | 8 mph | 58°F–76°F |
| Thu 1 | <1 in 10 | <1 in 10 | almost none · <1 in 10 | 10 mph | 60°F–81°F |
| Fri 2 | 4 in 10 | <1 in 10 | 0.03 in · <1 in 10 | 18 mph | 63°F–84°F |
| Sat 3 | 5 in 10 | 3 in 10 | 0.06 in · 2 in 10 | 17 mph | 57°F–67°F |
| Sun 4 | 7 in 10 | 5 in 10 | 0.65 in · 6 in 10 | 18 mph | 58°F–64°F |
| Mon 5 (part) | 3 in 10 | 2 in 10 | 0.92 in · 7 in 10 | 23 mph | 55°F–64°F |
Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 8 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.
Storms near Harrisburg
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Harrisburg this week. Every storm we’re tracking →
About these numbers
They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Harrisburg’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.
“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: see the National Weather Service forecast for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.