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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

This week’s weatherHappy Valley-Goose Bay, NL

Rain is likely in Happy Valley-Goose Bay on Friday

8 in 10 of NOAA’s 31 GEFS forecasts bring measurable rain to Happy Valley-Goose Bay Fri 3–9 a.m. ADT; 2 in 10 bring a tenth of an inch or more Thu 9 p.m.–3 a.m.

NOAA GEFS, 31 forecasts · Mon 28 Sep 18Z run · updated Mon., Sept. 28, 8:03 p.m. ADT · times are Happy Valley-Goose Bay’s (ADT)

See it on the globe For warnings, follow your national weather service.

Quick answers

Will it rain in Happy Valley-Goose Bay this week?
The best chances of measurable rain: Friday (8 in 10 forecasts, 3–9 a.m.); Monday, Oct. 5 (5 in 10 forecasts, 9 a.m.–3 p.m.). Drier: Tue, Wed, Thu, Sun (fewer than 2 in 10 forecasts in any six hours). Times are ADT.
How much rain will Happy Valley-Goose Bay get this week?
By Mon., Oct. 5, 3 p.m. ADT (the end of the forecast), the middle forecast has 0.28 in of rain and melted snow, counting from Mon 9 p.m. 2 in 10 forecasts bring 0.5 in or more in total.
How windy will it get in Happy Valley-Goose Bay?
Gusts over 30 mph: 5 in 10 forecasts at Fri 3 a.m. ADT. The middle forecast’s strongest gust is 29 mph, Thu 9 p.m. Checked every six hours, so a brief peak can fall between.
How warm or cold will it be in Happy Valley-Goose Bay?
At the six-hourly times, the middle forecast runs from 36°F (Sun 3 a.m.) to 66°F (Thu 3 p.m.) ADT. The day’s real high and low can fall between those times.
Are any storms heading for Happy Valley-Goose Bay?
No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre within 100 miles of Happy Valley-Goose Bay this week.

Chance of rain, six hours at a time

Mon 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneTue 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 3–9 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneWed 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 3–9 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneThu 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 7 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.04 inFri 3–9 a.m.: 8 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.03 inFri 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 3–9 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneFri 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 3–9 a.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 3–9 p.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSat 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 a.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: fewer than 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 3–9 p.m.: 1 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneSun 9 p.m.–3 a.m.: 2 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 3–9 a.m.: 3 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast almost noneMon 9 a.m.–3 p.m.: 5 in 10 forecasts with measurable rain; middle forecast 0.01 in

Each bar is the share of the 31 forecasts with measurable rain or melted snow in that six hours; the darker the bar, the more forecasts agree. Local days, ADT.

The week, day by day

DayChance of rainA tenth of an inch or moreTotal by day’s endStrongest gustTemperature
Mon 28 (rest of day)–––23 mph54°F
Tue 29<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1018 mph49°F–62°F
Wed 30<1 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1015 mph48°F–61°F
Thu 11 in 10<1 in 10almost none · <1 in 1029 mph53°F–66°F
Fri 28 in 102 in 100.13 in · <1 in 1028 mph46°F–56°F
Sat 33 in 101 in 100.15 in · 1 in 1024 mph40°F–46°F
Sun 41 in 10<1 in 100.16 in · 1 in 1025 mph36°F–46°F
Mon 5 (part)5 in 102 in 100.28 in · 2 in 1025 mph40°F–45°F

Chances are the highest in any six hours of the day. “Total by day’s end” is the middle forecast’s running total since Mon 9 p.m., and the share of forecasts with 0.5 in or more by then; totals aren’t added up day by day, because the middle forecast of each day isn’t the same forecast. Gusts and temperatures are read every six hours.

Storms near Happy Valley-Goose Bay

No storm Stormlines tracks has 1 in 10 forecasts passing its centre near Happy Valley-Goose Bay this week. Every storm we’re tracking →

About these numbers

They come from one source, NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS): 31 runs of the same model, each started slightly differently, read at Happy Valley-Goose Bay’s coordinates on a grid about 55 km (35 miles) apart. “8 in 10 forecasts” means 8 in 10 of those runs. Nothing is adjusted for local effects such as coasts, lakes, hills or city heat, so the numbers can differ from your local official forecast, especially for snow and showers.

“Measurable rain” counts rain or melted snow in a six-hour period. Not an official forecast: follow your national weather service for warnings and decisions. How the forecasts are read: how to read the maps and the glossary.

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